Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:05:26

Constituency Profile


Craig Larouche, Jordan

Elbourne-Weinstock, Emma

Fairbrother, Sam

Freiheit, David

Garneau, Marc

Hoffman, Rachel

Kaminski, Mathew

Wandji, Geofryde


Marc Garneau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16.04 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marc Garneau ** 2832356.30%
Franklin Gertler 775315.40%
Neil Drabkin 575911.40%
Robert Green 539710.70%
Jennifer Jet 23594.70%
André Valiquette 5651.10%
Jeffery A. Thomas 980.20%
Rachel Hoffman 670.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marc Garneau ** 2975557.70%
James Hughes 1122921.80%
Richard Sagala 741414.40%
Melissa Kate Wheeler 15813.10%
Simon Quesnel 12822.50%
Rachel Hoffman 1810.40%
Lisa Julie Cahn 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2710.61%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (55.64% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (43.21% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

02/09/21 R.O.
Long time liberal riding in downtown Montreal , Marc Garneau has been mp since 2008. Kind of surprised he decided to run again. But likely to stay liberal
15/08/21 A.S.
I speculated on Green 2nd place potential last time--considering how they finished over 10% and less than 5 points behind the 2nd-place NDP, I *might* have been not far from the mark had Jagmeetmania not happened. (Though the only non-Lib polls were a CPC pair in the northern reaches of Westmount.)
28/05/21 MF
Westmount and NDG have been Liberal since 1962. And unlike the similar ‘Brahmin Liberal’ districts in Rosedale and St. Paul's, PCs/Red Tories were never really a factor in Westmount.
26/05/21 J.F. Breton
On voit mal comment le député sortant pourrait perdre cette circonscription très libérale de l'ouest de l'île de Montréal. Le résultat de la dernière élection parle de lui-même.
05/05/21 JW
For no specific discernible reason, Scarborough Guildwood has been the second most reliably Liberal seat in Ontario in recent history. Electing a Liberal MP in the 2011 collapse and a Liberal MPP in the most recent provincial election, it has consistently elected Liberal federal and provincial members since 2003. The only other riding in Ontario that can claim such consistency is Ottawa Vanier.

Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster