Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-05 13:07:43

Constituency Profile


Badra, Clement

Cavallaro, Frank

El-Khoury, Ibrahim Bruno

Housefather, Anthony

Johnston, Diane

Komarov, Yegor

Lozoff, Zachary


Anthony Housefather

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



22.54 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Anthony Housefather ** 2459056.30%
David Tordjman 1088724.90%
Eric-Abel Baland 36098.30%
Clément Badra 23895.50%
Xavier Levesq 17574.00%
Zachary Lozoff 3620.80%
Diane Johnston 850.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Anthony Housefather 2418750.30%
Robert Libman ** 1820137.90%
Mario Jacinto Rimbao 38848.10%
Jade Bossé Bélanger 9081.90%
Timothy Landry 7471.60%
Diane Johnston 1240.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1830.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Mount Royal
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/08/21 A.S.
There was still *a* ghost of Harper-era Con support in '19--after all, it was still by far their best Montreal riding, and there were requisite dots of blue in Hampstead and CSL. But there was also an echo of a pattern evident in ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence where the e-day turnout in the Jewish polls atrophied a *lot* relative to '15--meanwhile, the special balloting nearly doubled over '15, and went CPC 2.7K to the Libs' 2K. (And re memories of another party holding this territory: don't forget the provincial Equality Party interlude. Which doesn't *quite* count, except as a reminder of how the natives could be restless on occasion.)
05/08/21 Laurence Putnam
The Conservatives gave the Liberals good reason to sweat the possibility of losing this riding in recent years, but at least for the time being, that threat has passed. This riding has been Liberal in every consecutive election and by-election held since 1940, including the 2002 by-election won by Irwin Cotler with 92% of the vote.
You would have to be at least an Octogenarian to lay claim to having been alive the last time another party held this seat.
Liberals will win their 28th consecutive victory in Mount Royal.
26/05/21 J.F. Breton
On voit mal comment le député sortant pourrait perdre cette circonscription très libérale de l'ouest de l'île de Montréal. Le résultat de la dernière élection parle de lui-même.
20/05/21 MF
This is Montreal's main "Jewish" riding. While many supported Harper's pro-Israel stance, there was a strong swing away from the Conservatives in the Jewish community and return to traditional Liberal voting patterns in the 2019 election. Anthony Housefather enjoys wide support in the riding and there won't be any real contest here.
05/05/21 JW
CPC won over 80% in most rural Aberta ridings last time.

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