Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:26:15

Constituency Profile


Bérubé, Simon

English, Sean

Généreux, Bernard

Lapointe, François

Mony, Thibaud

Rochon, Nancy


Bernard Généreux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7320.03 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bernard Généreux ** 2098941.70%
Louis Gagn 1626132.30%
Aladin Legault d'Auteuil 821016.30%
Hugo Latulippe 34816.90%
Denis Ducharme 10302.00%
Serge Haché 4170.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernard Généreux 1427429.00%
Marie-Josée Normand 1400228.40%
François Lapointe ** 1191824.20%
Louis Gagnon 793916.10%
Chantal Breton 8231.70%
Bien Gras Gagné 2870.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/09/20 J.F. Breton
Je réitère ma prédiction: Généreux l'emportera, poussé par les autres sièges conservateurs de la région. Libéraux et bloquistes vont se nuire mutuellement et Généreux se faufilera, comme toujours.
10/09/21 Sam
I'm not sure that Lapointe is going to help the Liberals much - certainly not enough to win. It's the sort of riding that the CPC and Bloc could do well in, but given the CPC were 14 points ahead here, and are holding up here, 14 points is a large gap to close. Not much else to say really. In a worse election for the CPC, the Bloc could win it - but we underestimated the CPC last time (and maybe the popularity of incumbent Genereux? It's not as if he had the same chance back in 2011, but his mayoral support should've been somewhat forgotten now). All in all, Genereux should get in comfortably, but like last time, not a massive blowout.
01/09/21 R.O.
Bernard Genereux was first elected in a 2009 by election and re elected in 2015 and 2019. The riding went ndp in 2011 when Francois Lapointe mp who is now the liberal candidate and had been bloc Quebecois prior to the riding going cpc in 2009. Typically seen very close races but I think Genereux will hold the riding one more time as he is a well known incumbent by now.
20/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Got to fancy the CPC here but those interested in weird races might be interested to know that the former NDP MP, François Lapointe is running for the Liberals after support Liseé for the PQ.
I, personally think he will come third as a Liberal with fewer votes than in 2015.
20/08/21 Marco Ricci
Former NDP MP François Lapointe is now running for the Liberals here. But although the Liberals came close to winning here in 2015, it probably doesn't help them much in 2021 since Conservative MP Bernard Généreux has now established himself as the main federalist option.
17/08/21 A.S.
Conservative success hereabouts in the 90s is indeed interesting to consider as a precursor to the present--Pierre Blais nearly surviving the '93 Tory rout, '97 seeing a close 3-way in which the Libs prevailed--but a significant bit of that element is also in Blaney's riding next door, while the present riding extends eastward into more the unreservedly Bloc-ish territory of RDL. So it's a split that *could* make Genereux vulnerable--right now his riding has, aside from Chicoutimi, the only sub-10% CPC margin in QC. But that'd be if CPC is in big trouble in QC, and if the Bloc isn't.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lors des dernières élections, on a souvent donné Généreux comme perdant. Et pourtant, il s'en est très bien tiré. Région assez conservatrice de la rive-sud, déjà à l'époque du ministre Blais sous Mulroney. Devrait permettre à Généreux de gagner à nouveau.

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