Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:17:30

Constituency Profile


Bergeron, Stéphane

Hynes, Natasha

Pelchat, Marie-?ve

Sauvageau, Julie

Sellah, Djaouida


Stéphane Berger

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



150.68 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Stéphane Berger 2536642.80%
Michel Picard ** 2106135.60%
Djaouida Sellah 49848.40%
Julie Sauvageau 41387.00%
Jean-Charles Pelland 29675.00%
Julie Lavallée 5010.80%
Thomas Thibault-Vincent 2110.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Michel Picard 1884832.50%
Catherine Fournier 1646028.40%
Djaouida Sellah ** 1429624.70%
Stéphane Duranleau 628410.90%
Olivier Adam 13882.40%
Claude Leclair 6411.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 9591.84%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (50.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Verchères-Les Patriotes
   (31.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (17.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 Sam
I agree with the post made by J.F. Breton - an energised Bloc who are turning out to vote should keep this in their column, particularly in these ridings which don't face Montreal in the same way. On top of most of the weekly polls show the Bloc catching up, so I expect Bergeron is now likely to hold on by a similar margin.
11/09/20 J.F. Breton
Quelques éléments qui militent pour une réélection de Bergeron: 1) la campagne très moyenne des libéraux; 2) le sursaut nationaliste au Québec à la suite du débat en anglais, Bergeron saura en tirer profit; 3) Bergeron est un politique aguerri qui demeure très présent et connu dans son coin.
03/09/21 R.O.
Stephane Bergeron was first elected in 2019 and had been a provincial member for parti Quebecois prior to running federally so well known. Riding had been ndp in 2011 and liberal in 2015 but before that bloc Quebecois for some time so think its more of a bloc riding.
15/08/21 A.S.
For all Bergeron's star quality, that he only won Montarville by 7 points (and the Libs gained 3 points in defeat) is indicative of something a bit too externally drilled-in for comfort--which is not why I'm *quite* ready to hand this unreservedly back to the Bloc this time. (And it's inevitable that the Orange Crush would have generated a tribe of post-defeat perennials, like Sellah bearing the standard once again.)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Stéphane Bergeron ne devrait pas avoir de mal à l'emporter, lui qui est député fédéral (BQ) ou provincial (PQ) dans le secteur depuis des années. Il faudrait un candidat libéral d'envergure pour le détrôner.

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