Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:11:23

Constituency Profile


Bourassa, Benoit

Croteau, Ariane

Garon, Jean-Denis

Guay, Mario

Lefebvre, Catherine

Loza, François

Montpetit, Christian


Simon Marcil

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



839.35 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Simon Marcil 3321951.10%
Karl Trudel 1616224.90%
François Desrochers 59409.10%
Anne-Marie Saint-Germain 52198.00%
Julie Tremblay 35175.40%
Christian Montpetit 6411.00%
Pietro Biacchi 3320.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Simon Marcil 1871031.50%
Mylène Freeman ** 1787330.10%
Karl Trudel 1551426.10%
Gordon Ferguson 602010.10%
Jocelyn Gifford 13012.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2120.45%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (58.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (15.15% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (14.04% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.63% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

10/09/21 Jake H.
Even with their 2019 candidate/winner not running, the Bloc own this riding. They more than doubled the Liberal vote total last time, and a year and a half later there's no reason to expect they'll slip much at all. Easy Bloc win in this riding. The other parties might as well just stay home on election day.
25/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as bloc mp Simon Marcil isn’t running again although a longtime bloc Quebecois riding likely new candidate Jean Denis Garon holds the seat.
15/08/21 A.S.
If we're dealing with a '15 BQ pickup that became a '19 BQ majority w/an over 2:1 margin over the Liberals, there's no doubt where this is going, even in an open-seat circumstance.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Territoire nationaliste et caquiste par excellence. Terreau fertile pour le Bloc Québécois dans la couronne nord de Montréal. Peu de risque pour le député en place.

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