Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:56:34

Constituency Profile


Gagné, Thomas

Gill, Marilène

Girard, Bianca

St-Jean, Nichola

Vigneault, Rodrigue


Marilène Gill

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



247655.33 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marilène Gill 2176853.90%
Dave Savard 779319.30%
François Corriveau 777119.20%
Colleen McCool 14823.70%
Jacques Gélineau 12933.20%
Gabriel Côté 2830.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marilène Gill 1733841.30%
Mario Tremblay 1234329.40%
Jonathan Genest-Jourdain ** 735917.50%
Yvon Boudreau 431710.30%
Nathan Grills 6731.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (87.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Jake H.
Definite Bloc hold. Gill is a known commodity and very well liked in this riding, which is reflected in the polling. With Bloc support trending upwards across the province this equates to an even bigger BQ win in 2021 than 2019.
Aside from a blip when the NDP took this seat in their 2011 ‘Orange Wave’, the Bloc has owned this riding since that party was formed, in 1993.
The real race will be to see who takes second place here.
02/09/21 R.O.
Marilene Gill was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. The riding did go ndp in 2011 but been a long time bloc Quebecois riding for years and likely to stay bloc.
17/08/21 A.S.
'15's best Bloc, '19 majority, you know where this all leads to. And a so-called star CPC candidate last time was only good for splitting the opposition vote evenly.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Marilène Gill ne risque pas grand chose dans cette circonscription de la Côte-Nord détenue, au provincial, par deux députés du Parti Québécois (PQ). Fort présence syndicale et derniers bastions du PQ qui mettra sa machine au service du Bloc.

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