Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:56:22

Constituency Profile


Bilodeau, Thierry

Chicoine, Daniel

Côté, Guillaume

Deltell, Gérard

Fortin, Mélanie

Huang, Yu-Ti Eva

Morin, Nathanielle


Gérard Deltell

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



138.17 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Gérard Deltell ** 2927944.70%
Jeanne-Paule Desgagn 1467422.40%
Jean-Christophe Cusson 1357120.70%
Colette Amram Ducharme 43396.60%
Sandra Mara Riedo 21553.30%
Guillaume Côté 15432.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Gérard Deltell 3263750.50%
Youri Rousseau 1385221.40%
G. Daniel Caron 1029615.90%
Ronald Sirard 668810.30%
Michel Savard 12101.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1750.31%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.98% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.02% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/09/21 R.O.
Gerard Deltell was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. The riding has been conservative since 2006 when the party first won seats in Quebec city except 2011 when it went ndp. So a cpc area federally and a well known mp so likely hold.
17/08/21 A.S.
If the Cons hold their own in QC in the face of implosion elsewhere, it'd because of them being the Deltell party, not the O'Toole party. Though Deltell did deflate a little over '15--nothing more than the token drift of maturing suburbia, I presume. (If the riding were more ‘rural’ or ‘removed’ in a South Shore way, there might have been more poll stability.)
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
La région de la Capitale-Nationale est un terreau fertile pour les Conservateurs. A titre d'exemple, lors d'un récent sondage au niveai provoncial, la CAQ obtenait 52% et le PCQ 14%, les partis de gauche (PQ et QS) ne récoltant que des miettes. Gérard Deltell est très apprécié et bien en vue. Réélection facile.

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