Blanchette, Denis
	Dahan, Ali
	Dean, Marc
	Lépine, Gilles
	Lightbound, Joël
	Nadji, Hamid
Incumbent:
	Joël Lightbound

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			103346 104038 52770 48294 94.78 km² 1090.30/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Joël Lightbound **	25140	40.50%
	Christian Hébe	17375	28.00%
	Marie-Josée Guérette	10912	17.60%
	Jérémie Juneau	4884	7.90%
	Macarena Diab	2466	4.00%
	Daniel Brisson	1016	1.60%
	Ali Dahan	267	0.40%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Joël Lightbound	21516	34.80%
	Jean-Pierre Asselin	16789	27.20%
	Denis Blanchette **	12850	20.80%
	Caroline Pageau	8900	14.40%
	Andrée-Anne Beaudoin-Julien	1561	2.50%
	Stefan Jetchick	128	0.20%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		13195	21.83%
		23359	38.65%
		8109	13.42%
		14636	24.22%
		996	1.65%
Other		143	0.24%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Louis-Hébert    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	25/08/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Joel Lightfoot defied the odds and got re elected in Louis Hebert a riding which has a history of going thru mp’s rather quickly. At this point too early to say if he can get re elected again in such a swingy riding. I’d imagine the bloc and conservatives would be the main opponents here as riding is in Quebec city. And they hold the nearby ridings.
	17/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The Capitale-Nationale at its most ‘establishmentarian’, which is why Lightbound expanded his margin nicely in '19. And contrary to low-hanging-fruit claims on regional-dominance grounds, CPC finished 3rd w/less than half the Lib vote. And it's hard to see the Bloc advancing further from where they now stand. So Lightbound broke a three-decade string of Louis-Hebert electing a different MP each election; hey, nothing is eternal...
	17/08/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
I think Joël Lightbound has a good chance of being re-elected here. He was re-elected in 2019 with a larger share than in 2015, and became the first MP in several decades to break the one-term ‘curse’. As J.F. Breton says, Lightbound is a rising star for the Liberals at the moment, and with the Liberals ahead of the BQ in the current polls, his chances are good.
	15/08/21	Sam 188.28.47.23
I think that QuebecCityOliver's point about the low ceilings for the Bloc and CPC is bang on - as the part of the city with the biggest Liberal streak, if the Liberals lead in Quebec it'll be hard for any opposition party to amass enough voters to counter the incumbent's total. Of course we've seen all four major parties in QC win here over the last few years, but it would take a big shift in polling for that to materialise for anyone except the Liberal incumbent.
	15/08/21	QuebecCityOliver 184.162.205.23
Hard to imagine that the BQ or CPC can create a coalition of voters to defeat Joel, here. Though, it has been done repeatedly in the 2000s - so not impossible. CAQ holds both the Provincial name equivalent and Jean-Talon after the 2019 by-election. But I find it hard to imagine that all of those provincial voters are all either CPC or BQ voters. I imagine Joel will romp home with 40% of the vote.
	09/05/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Joël Lightbound demeure une étoile montante chez les Libéraux fédéraux. Il demeure apprécié dans la région de Québec, il est présent médiatiquement quand il le faut, sans surexposition. Réélection sans trop de difficultés, dans une circonscription avec un bon fond libéral, tant au fédéral qu'au provincial.