Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-17 15:25:02

Constituency Profile


Blanchette, Denis

Dahan, Ali

Dean, Marc

Lépine, Gilles

Lightbound, Joël

Nadji, Hamid


Joël Lightbound

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



94.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Joël Lightbound ** 2514040.50%
Christian Hébe 1737528.00%
Marie-Josée Guérette 1091217.60%
Jérémie Juneau 48847.90%
Macarena Diab 24664.00%
Daniel Brisson 10161.60%
Ali Dahan 2670.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Joël Lightbound 2151634.80%
Jean-Pierre Asselin 1678927.20%
Denis Blanchette ** 1285020.80%
Caroline Pageau 890014.40%
Andrée-Anne Beaudoin-Julien 15612.50%
Stefan Jetchick 1280.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1430.24%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 R.O.
Joel Lightfoot defied the odds and got re elected in Louis Hebert a riding which has a history of going thru mp’s rather quickly. At this point too early to say if he can get re elected again in such a swingy riding. I’d imagine the bloc and conservatives would be the main opponents here as riding is in Quebec city. And they hold the nearby ridings.
17/08/21 A.S.
The Capitale-Nationale at its most ‘establishmentarian’, which is why Lightbound expanded his margin nicely in '19. And contrary to low-hanging-fruit claims on regional-dominance grounds, CPC finished 3rd w/less than half the Lib vote. And it's hard to see the Bloc advancing further from where they now stand. So Lightbound broke a three-decade string of Louis-Hebert electing a different MP each election; hey, nothing is eternal...
17/08/21 Marco Ricci
I think Joël Lightbound has a good chance of being re-elected here. He was re-elected in 2019 with a larger share than in 2015, and became the first MP in several decades to break the one-term ‘curse’. As J.F. Breton says, Lightbound is a rising star for the Liberals at the moment, and with the Liberals ahead of the BQ in the current polls, his chances are good.
15/08/21 Sam
I think that QuebecCityOliver's point about the low ceilings for the Bloc and CPC is bang on - as the part of the city with the biggest Liberal streak, if the Liberals lead in Quebec it'll be hard for any opposition party to amass enough voters to counter the incumbent's total. Of course we've seen all four major parties in QC win here over the last few years, but it would take a big shift in polling for that to materialise for anyone except the Liberal incumbent.
15/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Hard to imagine that the BQ or CPC can create a coalition of voters to defeat Joel, here. Though, it has been done repeatedly in the 2000s - so not impossible. CAQ holds both the Provincial name equivalent and Jean-Talon after the 2019 by-election. But I find it hard to imagine that all of those provincial voters are all either CPC or BQ voters. I imagine Joel will romp home with 40% of the vote.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Joël Lightbound demeure une étoile montante chez les Libéraux fédéraux. Il demeure apprécié dans la région de Québec, il est présent médiatiquement quand il le faut, sans surexposition. Réélection sans trop de difficultés, dans une circonscription avec un bon fond libéral, tant au fédéral qu'au provincial.

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