Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:25:02

Constituency Profile


Gagnon, Florence

Girard, Manon

King, Simon

Lafrenaye, Jacinthe

Murray, Mildred

Tall, Boukare

Trudel, Denis


Denis Trud

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



55.25 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Denis Trud 2306138.50%
Réjean Hébert 2047134.20%
Pierre Nantel ** 674511.30%
Éric Ferland 51048.50%
Patrick Clune 37796.30%
Ellen Comeau 4670.80%
Pierre-Luc Filion 2170.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Nantel ** 1817131.20%
Michael O'Grady 1746830.00%
Denis Trudel 1587327.30%
John Sedlak 50878.70%
Casandra Poitras 14472.50%
Affine Lwalalika 1530.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 870.17%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (77.73% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (22.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 Sam
Hold on! This projection makes no sense in light of the others, (especially Hochelaga going Bloc). I realise there was a Mainstreet poll, but it's out of date and before the Bloc catching up to their current total. If you think this is going Liberal, I would expect you to be putting Hochelaga and Beauport-Limoilou in the Liberal column as well.
I expect the Bloc to narrowly win here.
15/09/21 R.O.
Denis Trudel was first elected here in 2019 , riding had been ndp from 2011-15 when Pierre Nantel mp who oddly ran as the green candidate here in the last election. Feel the riding is tough to predict but less likely the bloc lose seats in Longueuil a long time bloc area historically than liberals gain seats there this election.
31/08/21 Drew613
A Mainstreet riding poll came out on the weekend showing an 8.3 point Liberal lead over the Bloc. That's outside the poll's margin of error: https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/LongueuilSaintHubert-iPolitics-19August2021.pdf
Un sondage Mainstreet a été publié ce week-end pour Longeuil-Saint-Hubert, montrant une avance libérale de 8,3 points sur le Bloc. C'est en dehors de la marge d'erreur du sondage : https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/LongueuilSaintHubert-iPolitics-19August2021.pdf
27/08/21 Lolitha
Mainstreet has a close-ish race with a Liberal advantage, 45 Liberal to 37 Bloc
15/08/21 A.S.
Even if the Bloc won out in the end and the ‘Nantel Green’ element might be likelier to default BQ than Lib (or, hey, in the present climate, even back to NDP), this remains narrow enough to be targetable by the Libs thanks in no small part to suburban ‘Montrealization’. If the Bloc sought a more-or-less guaranteed seat, Old Longueuil wouldn't have been split in two.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
En 2019, Denis Trudel a eu maille à partir avec Réjean Hébert, candidat vedette des Libéraux, par ailleurs ancien ministre péquiste. Le jeu était en outre incertain avec la candidature de l'ex-néo-démocrate Pierre Nantel, passé au Parti Vert. Le portrait est bien différent aujourd'hui. Denis Trudel est bien implanté et à moins d'un candidat vedette pour les Libéraux, réélection du Bloc.

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