Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:11:09

Constituency Profile


Baland, Eric-Abel

Evanko, Richard

Gaudreau, Marie-Hélène

Laframboise, Kathy

Le Comte, Michel

Leclerc, Michel

Menassa, Antoine

Sorel, Jean-Noël


Marie-Hélène Gaudre

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



17779.21 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marie-Hélène Gaudre 3062546.80%
David Graham ** 2165533.10%
Serge Grégoire 49837.60%
Claude Dufour 41226.30%
Gaël Chantrel 31574.80%
Richard Evanko 4180.60%
Ludovic Schneider 2720.40%
Michel Leclerc 1740.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Graham 2027732.10%
Johanne Régimbald 1879229.70%
Simon-Pierre Landry 1664426.30%
Sylvain Charron 62099.80%
Niloufar Hedjazi 12512.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1490.26%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Marie Helene Gaudreau was first elected here in 2019 , riding had been liberal in 2015 when David Graham mp and ndp in 2011. Before that had been a bloc area for some time so likely to stay bloc this year.
15/08/21 A.S.
While I can picture the Libs seriously aiming to retake those two North Shore seats lost to the Bloc in '19, I'd assume they're likelier to slacken the line on this one because it was such a left-field fluke in a seat that owing to its electoral history, arguably had no business going Liberal in the first place. As in, what next--Joliette? Montcalm?. (All the same, David Graham gained a point in defeat in '19.)
01/08/21 Sam
It was a wonder the Liberals won here in 2015, but even if the Bloc lose a bit of ground this should be pretty safe for them now, it's nationalist territory.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Territoire nationaliste et caquiste par excellence. Terreau fertile pour le Bloc Québécois dans la couronne nord de Montréal. Peu de risque pour le député en place.

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