Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:55:12

Constituency Profile


Antonin, Pascal

Carter, Sarah

De Lierre, Jason

Fortin, JP

Guérard, Raphaël

Lametti, David

Moran, Janina

Walsh, Michel


David Lametti

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



18.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

David Lametti ** 2280343.50%
Isabel Di 1261924.10%
Steven Scott 862816.50%
Claudio Rocchi 36907.00%
Jency Mercier 35836.80%
Daniel Turgeon 4900.90%
Julien Côté 2740.50%
Rhino Jacques Bélanger 2650.50%
Eileen Studd 390.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

David Lametti 2360343.90%
Hélène LeBlanc ** 1556629.00%
Gilbert Paquette 916417.00%
Mohammad Zamir 37136.90%
Lorraine Banville 17173.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3920.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (50.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Jeanne-Le Ber
   (49.87% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/09/21 R.O.
David Lametti ws first elected here in 2015 but been a long time liberal riding in montreal except 2011 when it went ndp so likely to stay liberal.
15/08/21 A.S.
When it comes to the ‘surprisingly tepid share’ (the only West Island Lib submajority), let's remember that the riding presently bearing the name of Paul Martin's old stronghold ceded a lot of its best Lib parts to Dorval et al and acquired Verdun in exchange--something which skewed it significantly away from the Libs and perhaps would have been enough to defeat Martin in '06. What's left of ‘Liberal LaSalle’ has been left a westerly rump, IOW. However, the gentrifiably oldburban-creative-class nature of Verdun & Ville-Emard means that any threat the Bloc once would have posed is now cancelled out by the NDP--who given the counterintuitive trajectory of *everything* in an era when the Bloc's become more of a faux-CAQ entity, could plausibly reassume 2nd place next time...
08/08/21 Stevo
Surprisingly tepid Liberal share here in Paul Martin's old stomping ground, although not low enough to make this seat truly competitive.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
On voit mal comment David Lametti pourrait perdre cette circonscription très libérale du sud-ouest de l'île de Montréal. Le résultat de la dernière élection parle de lui-même.

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