Election Prediction Project

La Prairie
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:31:36

Constituency Profile


Chouinard, Normand

des Greniers, Lise

Desrochers, Caroline

Fontaine, Ruth

Hernandez, Victoria

Joannette, Barbara

Therrien, Alain


Alain Therri

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



278.94 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Alain Therri 2570741.80%
Jean-Claude Poissant ** 2250436.60%
Isabelle Lapointe 55409.00%
Victoria Hernandez 47447.70%
Barbara Joannette 25654.20%
Gregory Yablunovsky 3930.60%
Normand Chouinard 1000.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Jean-Claude Poissant 2099336.50%
Christian Picard 1510726.20%
Pierre Chicoine 1317422.90%
Yves Perras 685911.90%
Joanne Tomas 12352.10%
Normand Chouinard 2040.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 910.18%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (51.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Brossard-La Prairie
   (48.82% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 J.F. Breton
Alain Therrien est un excellent candidat de terrain et le Mainstreet, il y a une semaine, le montrait en avance. Aucune raison que la situation se soit inversée. Victoire du Bloc.
17/09/21 George
Mainstreet of Sept 11 has a healthy Bloc lead here, 42 BQ to 32 Lib among decided voters.
07/09/21 R.O.
Alain Therrien was first elected in 2019 but had previously been a Parti Quebecois member of the Quebec legislature for the area. the riding has been bloc before but also liberal and ndp. The liberals with an incumbent mp still lost this riding to the bloc by 5 % last election. I’m not seeing any reason as to why that would change this year seems likely to stay bloc.
15/08/21 A.S.
One of the more abrasive Bloqistes (i.e. the one who triggered Jagmeet's accusations of racism), Therrien really got his seat as a consolation prize after being trounced provincially for the PQ. I mentioned in '19 that the trends were not in the Bloc's favour unless they got 1/3 of seats in QC; well, they *did* make that benchmark, and this was one of those seats. But it's because the Lib share stood still, while the Bloc leapfrogged flor a 5-point margin. And that narrowness is why it remains a likely top Lib target. (But it used to be the Brossard/La Prairie border that was full-stop btw/Lib and Bloc country. Now La Prairie & Candiac are on the roughly Lib side, while Ste Catharine/St Constant buoy the Bloc.)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Toujours une lutte très intéressante dans La Prairie. Alain Therrien est présent et bien en vue dans le caucus bloquiste. Ceci étant, la dynamique dans la circonscription permet toujours aux Libéraux d'offrir une solide performance. Je m'abstiendrai de désigner un gagnant, tant qu'on n'aura pas un portrait final des candidats en lice, particulièrement chez les Libéraux.

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