Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

La Pointe-de-l'Île
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-16 23:27:24
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Anania, Massimo

Beaulieu, Mario

Desclin, Jonathan

Fadeu, Jonas

Falquet, Agnès

Gervais, Charles Phillippe

Royer, Genevieve

Vallerand, Alexandre


Incumbent:

Mario Beaulieu

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

106336
103512

49814
47453

41.56 km²
2558.90/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mario Beaulieu 2601046.80%
Jonathan Plamondon 1689830.40%
Ève Péclet 605710.90%
Robert Coutu 39847.20%
Franco Fiori 19103.40%
Randy Manseau 3880.70%
Jacinthe Lafrenaye 1990.40%
Geneviève Royer 880.20%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Mario Beaulieu 1854533.60%
Marie-Chantale Simard 1577728.60%
Ève Péclet ** 1477726.80%
Guy Morissette 44088.00%
David J. Cox 11302.00%
Ben 97 Benoit 3580.60%
Jean-François Larose 1350.20%
Geneviève Royer 960.20%


2011 Results (redistributed)

38017.65%
2361547.53%
501610.10%
1608132.37%
9361.88%
Other 2380.48%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (88.34% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Honoré-Mercier
   (11.66% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


01/09/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Mario Beaulieu was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. The riding did go ndp in 2011 but solidly bloc Quebecois for years prior to that so likely to stay bloc this year.
15/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Had Beaulieu not gotten his foot in the door in '15, I'm not sure if he would have had so solid a victory in '19. And there remains that possibility I alluded to in '19, of the present-day Bloc becoming ‘too 514’ even for *here*. At least in the long term--though it doesn't seem a ‘long term’ that's arrived yet unless the Bloc backslides back out of official party status. (Never mind that this was gained while they *remained* lacking in OPS.)
12/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
Mario Beaulieu est bien en selle dans cette circonscription francophone de l'est de Montréal. Seul comté sûr du Bloc à Montréal.



Navigate to Canada 2021 Home | Provincial/Regional Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2021 - Élections fédérales canadiennes
Election Prediction Project - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2021 - Email Webmaster