Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 22:46:07

Constituency Profile


Bégin, Stéphane

Bélanger, Line

Gravel, Louise

Ruel, Marieve

Simard, Mario

Yelle, Marie-Josée


Mario Sima

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



39196.14 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Mario Sima 1757735.60%
Karine Trudel ** 1214124.60%
Philippe Gagnon 1033820.90%
Vincent Garneau 784915.90%
Lyne Bourdages 10092.00%
Sylvie Théodore 4530.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karine Trudel 1403929.20%
Marc Pettersen 1370028.50%
Jean-François Caron 1120223.30%
Ursula Larouche 812416.90%
Carmen Budilean 6561.40%
Marielle Couture 3820.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 520.11%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (78.03% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (17.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (4.44% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

10/09/21 QuebecCityOliver
People seem to fail to realize that this area is sort of like a mini-redux of small-C conservatives like Québec City. And with Legault saying vote blue, I can see the Conservatives winning this riding and its neighbour.
Martel might not be a one-election wonder, but it will be much more impressive if the Conservatives get two in the region. People always seem to forget he coached the Chicoutimi Saguenéens to victory.
07/09/21 R.O.
Just noticed there was a mainstreet poll done for this riding perhaps closer than people realise and surprising numbers . 30 % Louise Gravel conservative , 27 % Mario Simard bloc mp , 26 % Stephane Begin liberal . numbers for other parties less than 10 %
06/09/21 George
A link to the riding poll showing a small Conservative lead - TCTC
03/09/21 LFCottawa
Not sure why this is not in the TCTC category. Mainstreet did an individual riding poll in iPolitics today. Shows the CPC with a 3 point lead over the Bloc, and 4 over the LPC.
02/09/21 Sam
You might be inclined to argue no party had a complete disaster here last time - the NDP did reasonably well in the circumstances and 15% for the Liberals wasn't quite so bad. Though without the good candidates for the NDP and CPC that vote will migrate, and the Bloc can breathe a bit easier in spite of their apparent trouble.
17/08/21 A.S.
Karine Trudel was actually a sleeper overachiever in defeat in '19 (the 5th best NDP incumbent in QC, in fact)--but one assumes much of that NDP vote will migrate to the now-incumbent Bloc. And all the more likely given how it was CPC in 3rd that year, not the Libs. (A star-candidate CPC; but, no matter.)
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Le NPD n'étant plus un facteur majeur à considérer, le Bloc a toutes les chances de conserver cette circonscription. La division du vote entre les Libéraux et les Conservateurs devrait par ailleurs aider.

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