Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:54:59

Constituency Profile


Dickins, Catherine

Fergus, Greg

Fleury, Eric

Gendron, Samuel

Gnocchini-Messier, Simon

Lafleur, Josée

LeBlanc, Mike

Perion, Sandrine

Provost, Simon


Greg Fergus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



62.11 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Greg Fergus ** 2973254.10%
Joanie Riop 801114.60%
Nicolas Thibodeau 746713.60%
Mike Duggan 49799.10%
Josée Poirier Defoy 38697.00%
Rowen Tanguay 6381.20%
Sébastien Grenier 1950.40%
Alexandre Deschênes 1020.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Greg Fergus 2847851.40%
Nycole Turmel ** 1747231.50%
Étienne Boulrice 42787.70%
Maude Chouinard-Boucher 36256.50%
Roger Fleury 10351.90%
Sean J. Mulligan 2910.50%
Luc Desjardins 1600.30%
Gabriel Girard-Bernier 1010.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

31/08/21 GritBusters
As the former head of PSAC, Nycole Turmel was tailor-made for this riding, and she still lost to Greg Fergus by 20 points in 2015, which was also a more friendly election than this one for the NDP in Québec.
Walking around the riding, I see that all the NDP billboards have Singh and Boulerice whereas the other parties' all feature the local candidate.
Unfortunately, with the NDP's emerging national strength not reflected either provincially or locally, the Liberals should easily hold the riding.
15/08/21 A.S.
When it comes to QC vs ON, if Gatineau's boring suburban Liberalism echoes that of Orleans, Hull-Aylmer's got more of an Ottawa-Vanier quirkiness about it--even the distant-2nd Bloc-NDP split echoes the distant-2nd CPC-NDP split natural condition in O-V. (And I *did* foresee the '19 likelihood of the NDP bluffing into 2nd despite the party polling poorly in QC at large--well, if it weren't for the advance polls, they *would* have been 2nd.)
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Peu de risque ici pour les Libéraux. La seule circonscription qui sera l'objet d'une lutte en Outaouais sera Argenteuil-La Petite Nation. Victoire libérale sans trop d'encombre.

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