Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:09:21

Constituency Profile


Calle Cabrera, Aime

Dandenault, Christine

Doucet-Beauchamp, Marc-André

Lavarenne, Zachary

Marchand, Simon

Martinez Ferrada, Soraya

Paquette, Michelle

Roy-Goyette, Catheryn

Smithee, Alan


Soraya Martinez Ferrada

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



19.55 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Soraya Martinez Ferrada 1800834.00%
Simon Marcha 1768033.30%
Catheryn Roy-Goyette 1145121.60%
Robert D. Morais 26184.90%
Christine Marcoux 23814.50%
Stepan Balatsko 3770.70%
Chinook Blais-Leduc 3140.60%
Christine Dandenault 1070.20%
JP Fortin 1010.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet ** 1603430.90%
Marwah Rizqy 1553429.90%
Simon Marchand 1438927.70%
Alexandre Dang 35556.80%
Anne-Marie Saint-Cerny 16543.20%
Nicolas Lemay 4110.80%
Marianne Breton Fontaine 1790.30%
Christine Dandenault 1480.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 5471.16%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (86.24% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (8.17% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.6% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Dr Bear
Don’t be so fast to call this for the BQ. They are still polling down three points relative to 2019. I have said in previous electionprediction-go-rounds that this is a natural NDP working class seat that is slowly diversifying and gentrifying. If this were any other city, we would be saying ‘team orange’ and moving on. However, this is still a fairly nationalist area and people here won’t be able to get past Singh’s turban (sad to say, but this is true). And while the NDP are probably pushing hard, they will fall short (I would be both happy and impressed to be proven wrong on this point). That said, I am of the opinion that we will see a repeat of 2019; a close race with the Liberals edging the BQ and the NDP out. There is Liberal support here; always has been when times were good for the Liberals; albeit a bit muted compared to the more outspoken competitors.
16/09/21 J.F. Breton
Comme le souligne David, c'est un match revanche entre les trois principaux candidats. Depuis 2019, l'aura du NPD n'a pas plus brillé et les libéraux sont un peu plus usé. Combiné à la petite poussée du Bloc suivant le débat en anglais, je penche pour un gain du Bloc ici, dans cette circonscription francophone de l'Est de Montréal.
14/09/21 kingstonstudent
The NDP's retention of this riding in 2015 and its strong showing relative to their provincial total in 2019 demonstrates that this one of the few places in Quebec where the party has organic strength. While the polling has been all over the place in this election, if the Bloc surge indicated by the post-debate polls is even partially accurate, then it may be too late for Catheryn Roy-Goyette to make a breakthrough.
08/09/21 David
Match revanche entre les 3 principaux candidats Soraya Martinez du PLC, Simon Marchand du Bloc Québécois et Catheryn Roy-Goyette du NPD. Avec le désenchantement de nombreux électeurs face aux libéraux de Justin Trudeau, je mets un 2$ sur l'élection de Simon Marchand qui n'a perdu que par 200 votes en 2019!
06/09/21 Drew613
While this was a nail-bitter in 2019, I think with the Bloc at best steady in Quebec and more likely down, that this will be a Liberal-NDP race. A new Sept. 1st large sample Leger Quebec-only poll has BQ support at only 13% on the Island of Montreal - that's lower than the Conservatives! The NDP are flirting with 20% support, meaning they could main threat in Hochelaga to the Libs and not the NDP. A stronger NDP could also result in vote splitting to produce a larger margin of victory Liberal win. One to watch on election night for sure. https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rapport-politique-federale-1-sept-2021-VF.pdf
31/08/21 GritBusters
I was shocked to see Hochelaga and Laurier-Sainte-Marie go Liberal in 2019: the riding is a stronghold of both Québec nationalism and democratic socialism. Look for left-leaning voters to coalesce around the Bloc Québécois here, as they're still more progressive than the Liberals in the Mount Royal Plateau and its surroundings.
22/08/21 Sam
Yeah - it's fair to say that Hochelaga was one of those results that didn't make total sense until we had the benefit of hindsight, in which case the Montreal factor was clear. And in this more nationalist part of the island, the NDP's performance amid the resurgent Bloc was commendable.
It's a three-way rematch as was mentioned. A decline in Bloc fortunes might push them out of contention here - but can the NDP seize on that? Time will tell, but the Liberals are still on the defensive.
15/08/21 A.S.
A 3-way rematch. It surprised many that Hochelaga opted for the Libs over the Bloc in '19, though it was definitely something I was allowing for--basically, like an NDP-deflated repeat of '15. And w/hinterland grievance being on the ascendant over urban progressivism in the BQ camp, together w/Lib incumbency, it's getting to seem that if the Bloc couldn't get its toe in the door in '19, it'll be even more of a problem now. *And*, the NDP's still in the picture.
12/05/21 J.F. Breton
Hochelaga sera l'objet, comme toujours d'une lutte intéressante sur l'île de Montréal, comme l'a démontré le résultat de la dernière élection de 2019. Les luttes sont rares à Montréal. Celle-ci devrait être intéressante, comme toujours. Duel Bloc - Libéral. Trop tôt pour désigner un gagnant.

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