Bernatchez, Guy
	Lebouthillier, Diane
	Leduc, Monique
	Phung, Lisa
	Pigeon, Jean-Pierre
	Rioux, Christian
Incumbent:
	Diane Lebouthillier

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			75850 78833 39120 34361 16831.35 km² 4.50/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Diane Lebouthillier **	16296	42.50%
	Guy Bernatch	15659	40.80%
	Jean-Pierre Pigeon	3022	7.90%
	Lynn Beaulieu	1722	4.50%
	Dennis Drainville	1130	2.90%
	Jay Cowboy	353	0.90%
	Eric Hébert	198	0.50%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Diane Lebouthillier	15345	38.70%
	Philip Toone **	12885	32.50%
	Nicolas Roussy	8289	20.90%
	Jean-Pierre Pigeon	2398	6.10%
	Jim Morrison	400	1.00%
	Max Boudreau	300	0.80%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		6738	19.07%
		10186	28.83%
		6021	17.04%
		11684	33.07%
		702	1.99%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine    (84.67% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia    (15.33% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	19/09/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Je suis plutôt en accord avec l'analyse de Marco Ricci. Du coup, je pencherai pour la ministre sortante. Oui, Blanchet est venu dans la circonscription, ce qui signifie que c'est très serré. Mais rappelons-nous qu'en 2019, le Bloc était donné gagnant et que LeBouthillier l'a emporté. Une ministre au cabinet, dans une région comme la Gaspésie, ça compte énormément.
	16/09/21	Marco Ricci 174.114.237.78
This riding was leaning Liberal a couple of weeks ago, but is now a Tossup since the BQ has gained a few points in the polls. The fact that Blanchet was here this week may indicate that this riding is not a done deal yet. It could go BQ if Quebec trends more Bloc, or Diane Lebouthillier could hang on again. The prediction here in 2019 was for it to go BQ, but Lebouthillier won. With some projections showing the Liberals heading for a Minority on September 20, voters here may still think it worthwhile to have a cabinet minister again. This riding reports its results on the Atlantic time zone, so we'll get some indications early in the night as to which way it goes.
	15/09/21	Sam 213.48.225.156
So Blanchet thought it worthwhile to spend yesterday in the Magdalen Islands, though I suspect that's just as much a case of having fewer ridings to visit, as much as it being close. Nevertheless he's not in save the bacon mode in the slightest and has been on the offensive elsewhere. Liberal internals are apparently not looking bad in Quebec and the Bloc are reenergised across the province. Even if in themselves the factors don't shift enough votes from party to party there's certainly more to motivate Bloc voters here - the local issues combined with the waning cabinet star power of the incumbent that boosted her last time seal that. I might going against the grain but this is one of the Bloc's best chances for a pickup and I'm more and more confident that they will.
	08/09/21	David 70.81.78.149
Trop de dossiers sont venu entacher le dernier mandat de Mme LeBouthillier (Port d'hivernage de Grande-Rivière, quai de Cap-aux-Meules, assurance-emploi, Phare de Cap-des-Rosiers). Elle qui ne l'avait emportée que par 600 votes la dernière fois fait à nouveau face au populaire maire de Mont-Louis Guy Bernatchez. L'étoile de Justin Trudeau et son équipe ont pâlie depuis... Victoire du Bloc Québécois!
	01/09/21	R.O. 24.146.13.237
Diane Lebouthillier was first elected in 2015 and re elected in a close race in 2019 . bloc Quebecois candidate Guy Bernatchez is back for the rematch . the riding could stay liberal but I see a lot of potential for the bloc here based on ridings history / location. so too close as things stand now
	17/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
I did call this for the Libs in '19, and again...well, at least Lebouthillier survived. Funny, though, how both tip-of-the-Gaspe ridings went from '15 free-for-alls to '19 ‘boring’ Lib-Bloc binaries w/nobody else in double digits. Though yes, this one compensated for the ‘boring’ by being a close race--the Acadian-border-zone quirkiness of this part of Quebec will ensure it'll always be prone to unpredictable horse races.
	22/05/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Comme toujours, ce sera une lutte intéressante. J'aurais tendance à favoriser les Libéraux, avec la ministre sortante, mais il faudra attendre de voir la performance du Bloc au Québec et des Libéraux dans les Maritimes.