Election Prediction Project

Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:20:36

Constituency Profile


Bernatchez, Guy

Lebouthillier, Diane

Leduc, Monique

Phung, Lisa

Pigeon, Jean-Pierre

Rioux, Christian


Diane Lebouthillier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16831.35 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Diane Lebouthillier ** 1629642.50%
Guy Bernatch 1565940.80%
Jean-Pierre Pigeon 30227.90%
Lynn Beaulieu 17224.50%
Dennis Drainville 11302.90%
Jay Cowboy 3530.90%
Eric Hébert 1980.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Diane Lebouthillier 1534538.70%
Philip Toone ** 1288532.50%
Nicolas Roussy 828920.90%
Jean-Pierre Pigeon 23986.10%
Jim Morrison 4001.00%
Max Boudreau 3000.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (84.67% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (15.33% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/09/21 J.F. Breton
Je suis plutôt en accord avec l'analyse de Marco Ricci. Du coup, je pencherai pour la ministre sortante. Oui, Blanchet est venu dans la circonscription, ce qui signifie que c'est très serré. Mais rappelons-nous qu'en 2019, le Bloc était donné gagnant et que LeBouthillier l'a emporté. Une ministre au cabinet, dans une région comme la Gaspésie, ça compte énormément.
16/09/21 Marco Ricci
This riding was leaning Liberal a couple of weeks ago, but is now a Tossup since the BQ has gained a few points in the polls. The fact that Blanchet was here this week may indicate that this riding is not a done deal yet. It could go BQ if Quebec trends more Bloc, or Diane Lebouthillier could hang on again. The prediction here in 2019 was for it to go BQ, but Lebouthillier won. With some projections showing the Liberals heading for a Minority on September 20, voters here may still think it worthwhile to have a cabinet minister again. This riding reports its results on the Atlantic time zone, so we'll get some indications early in the night as to which way it goes.
15/09/21 Sam
So Blanchet thought it worthwhile to spend yesterday in the Magdalen Islands, though I suspect that's just as much a case of having fewer ridings to visit, as much as it being close. Nevertheless he's not in save the bacon mode in the slightest and has been on the offensive elsewhere. Liberal internals are apparently not looking bad in Quebec and the Bloc are reenergised across the province.
Even if in themselves the factors don't shift enough votes from party to party there's certainly more to motivate Bloc voters here - the local issues combined with the waning cabinet star power of the incumbent that boosted her last time seal that. I might going against the grain but this is one of the Bloc's best chances for a pickup and I'm more and more confident that they will.
08/09/21 David
Trop de dossiers sont venu entacher le dernier mandat de Mme LeBouthillier (Port d'hivernage de Grande-Rivière, quai de Cap-aux-Meules, assurance-emploi, Phare de Cap-des-Rosiers).
Elle qui ne l'avait emportée que par 600 votes la dernière fois fait à nouveau face au populaire maire de Mont-Louis Guy Bernatchez. L'étoile de Justin Trudeau et son équipe ont pâlie depuis... Victoire du Bloc Québécois!
01/09/21 R.O.
Diane Lebouthillier was first elected in 2015 and re elected in a close race in 2019 . bloc Quebecois candidate Guy Bernatchez is back for the rematch . the riding could stay liberal but I see a lot of potential for the bloc here based on ridings history / location. so too close as things stand now
17/08/21 A.S.
I did call this for the Libs in '19, and again...well, at least Lebouthillier survived. Funny, though, how both tip-of-the-Gaspe ridings went from '15 free-for-alls to '19 ‘boring’ Lib-Bloc binaries w/nobody else in double digits. Though yes, this one compensated for the ‘boring’ by being a close race--the Acadian-border-zone quirkiness of this part of Quebec will ensure it'll always be prone to unpredictable horse races.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Comme toujours, ce sera une lutte intéressante. J'aurais tendance à favoriser les Libéraux, avec la ministre sortante, mais il faudra attendre de voir la performance du Bloc au Québec et des Libéraux dans les Maritimes.

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