Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:19:51

Constituency Profile


Allen, Geneva

Bibeau, Marie-Claude

Bourassa, Yves

Bresse, Nathalie

Dodier, Sylvain

Gendron, Déitane

Longpré, Sylvain

Tremblay, Pierre


Marie-Claude Bibeau

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4560.51 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Marie-Claude Bibeau ** 2173137.30%
David Beno 1857131.90%
Jessy Mc Neil 844614.50%
Naomie Mathieu Chauvette 56079.60%
Jean Rousseau 30445.20%
Paul Reed 5861.00%
Jonathan Therrien 2520.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Marie-Claude Bibeau 2058236.90%
Jean Rousseau ** 1530027.40%
France Bonsant 1155120.70%
Gustavo Labrador 697812.50%
Korie Marshall 10851.90%
Kévin Côté 3150.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 50.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (93.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Little has been said about this one and not sure if any party leaders have been to the riding. Marie Claude Bibeau was first elected in 2015 and eventually became a cabinet minister. The riding has somewhat of a swing history. Been bloc , ndp and liberal since 2004. Mainly rural and borders 2 cpc ridings to the north yet the conservatives haven’t been strong here. so mainly a liberal/bloc race this election.
15/08/21 A.S.
No prediction in light of '19's narrowed race. Still, the margin was wider here than in Brome-Missisquoi--a bit Bibeau's cabinet incumbency; a bit your usual Stanstead-and-Lennoxville reasons; and a bit, perhaps, that greater Sherbrooke is ‘moderating’ (whereas B-M's urbanism is more ‘small-town’, less minor-metropolitan). So perhaps I should question that non-prediction. (And a measure of the brewing Jagmeet effect upon the campus electorate: the central Bishops U poll actually went NDP.)
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Peu de risque pour Marie-Claude Bibeau dans cette région des Cantons-de-l'Est. Comme toujours, son principal opposant sera bloquiste. Ce sera plus serré que pour certains de ses collègues ministres, mais sa position et sa notoriété seront un plus vers la victoire.

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