Election Prediction Project

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:31:54

Constituency Profile


Bouchard, Julie

Duplain, Jean

Laporte, Yves

Martel, Richard

Raymond, Ismaël

Voyer, Jimmy


Richard Martel

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2545.71 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Richard Martel ** 1615536.80%
Valérie Trembl 1532134.90%
Dajana Dautovic 750417.10%
Stéphane Girard 28556.50%
Lynda Youde 13883.20%
Jimmy Voyer 3590.80%
Line Bélanger 2990.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Denis Lemieux 1361931.10%
Dany Morin ** 1301929.70%
Élise Gauthier 899020.50%
Caroline Ste-Marie 727016.60%
Dany St-Gelais 9072.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.67%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 Jake H.
Legault's tacit endorsement moved the needle in the Conservatives' direction. Not a lot in Quebec, but enough to make a difference in this riding. The incumbent is popular and has done exactly what was needed in not making any big mistakes. The Bloc has a weaker candidate this time, so even though they kept it very close before, the Conservatives should safely hold onto the seat. Emphasis on ‘should’ - I wouldn't be shocked if the Bloc came away with this, depending on how their campaign goes in the closing days.
16/09/21 R.O.
There is a segma recherché poll for the riding that shows Martel ahead , 51 cpc , 28 bloc , 12 lib . noticed it go by on twitter seems to be a smaller Quebec based pollster so a local riding poll . but I can’t find a link or article
11/09/20 J.F. Breton
Si les Conservateurs sont en tête à 30% dans Jonquière, la circonscription voisine, ça signifie probablement que Martel est bien en selle dans Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.
09/09/21 Baron of Whitby
Legault's endorsement of a CPC minority should strengthen the party's support here and move them into the lead. CPC Hold.
08/09/21 David
Richard Martel des conservateurs l'avait emporté par 600 votes devant une candidate ayant embarrasser le Bloc Québécois et son chef avec des statuts Facebook douteux. Gageons que Julie Bouchard, une infirmière de La Baie vivant
à Chicoutimi avec un réseau d'appui pas mal plus grand ainsi que l'aide de ses deux confrères de Jonquière et du Lac-Saint-Jean devrait avoir raison de M. Martel cette fois-ci. Victoire du Bloc Québécois.
25/08/21 R.O.
Richard Martel was first elected in a 2018 by election and re elected in 2019 in a close race with bloc Quebecois. This riding has a colourful history and voted for 5 different political parties going back to 93 Progressive conservatives Liberals Bloc ndp and conservatives. Richard Martel is fairly well known and has personal appeal so I’d still favour him here as things stand now.
17/08/21 A.S.
It turned out that Richard Martel was closer to being a one-byelection-wonder than many had counted on--then again, maybe you can blame the byelection for giddily skewing the picture, but from a partisan standpoint there's something not quite ‘organic’ about Martel's hold on the riding, much as there wasn't with Denis Lebel in LSJ (which is in part why Lebel's last '15 mandate was so weak). Then again, for such a ‘heavily nationalist’ riding, Chicoutimi's been awfully prone to non-nationalist challenges and occasional victories over the years, and only gave a solid victory to the Bloc in '93--so there's something about Martel that's perfectly in *that* character. Not invulnerably so, though.
08/08/21 Sam
I'm stunned that this is being called for the CPC already. Richard Martel IS the reason why the CPC is so strong here, and he IS a strong incumbent, but he does not secure the riding for the CPC, even with the Bloc underperformance in this highly nationalist riding. It was close here between them and the Bloc and with the level of closeness of the race last time, I don't think we can make a call based on that.
I think ultimately this race is a two man fight though with the Bloc having hoovered up much of the Liberal and NDP vote, and it will come down to the national shares.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Ce sera à nouveau une lutte épique pour Richard Martel, mais mon petit doigt me dit qu'il s'en sortira tout de même. Il est bien implanté dans sa circonstription. Les gens voteront pour lui avant de voter pour les Conservateurs.

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