Benoit, Jeff
	Bournaki, Pierre
	Gagnon, Marc
	Lafrance, André
	O'Hara, Patrick
	Olivier, Frédéric
	Shanahan, Brenda
	Wolker, Hannah
Incumbent:
	Brenda Shanahan

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			97887 92169 39798 38514 905.92 km² 108.10/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Brenda Shanahan **	20118	38.40%
	Claudia Valdiv	19479	37.20%
	Hugues Laplante	5851	11.20%
	Marika Lalime	4005	7.60%
	Meryam Haddad	1929	3.70%
	Jeff Benoit	563	1.10%
	Marc Gagnon	393	0.70%
	Pierre Chénier	64	0.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Brenda Shanahan	20245	39.10%
	Sophie Stanké	12615	24.40%
	Sylvain Chicoine **	11986	23.10%
	Philippe St-Pierre	5805	11.20%
	Jency Mercier	982	1.90%
	Linda Sullivan	149	0.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		5460	12.03%
		22116	48.72%
		4630	10.20%
		12216	26.91%
		866	1.91%
Other		105	0.23%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Châteauguay-Saint-Constant    (67.68% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide
Beauharnois-Salaberry    (32.32% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	15/09/21	J.F. Breton 207.253.54.66
Lutte toujours trڈs serrژe dans Ch‰teauguay-Lacolle. Si certains secteurs sont plus nationalistes, en descendant vers le sud, les libژraux ont toujours de solides assises. La remontژe du Bloc ne semble pas, pour le moment, assez importante pour leur permettre d'arracher le comtژ, les agrژgateurs de sondage penchant toujours vers les libژraux.
	14/09/21	George 192.119.160.251
Mainstreet of Sept 4th has a close race, Liberal leading BQ 34 to 28 among decided voters. With BQ up since the 4th, probably more like a tie now. https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ChateauguayLacolle-iPolitics-04September2021.pdf
	15/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
The Argenteuil-LPN of the S Shore: something I handed to the Libs in '19 on big-share-in-'15 grounds, yet it turned out to be a Bloc-wave-grazed squeaker instead--but hey, Shanahan still survived! And it was *really* polarized, w/Shanahan's support heavily concentrated within Chateauguay proper, yet beyond a single poll in Mercier, there were no rural/exurban interior Lib polls until a pair in the Lacolle end, close to and along the US border. The Grits should thank their blessings that Chateauguay's a ‘mixed’ town; it's what saved their skin here. (Oh, and I contest the idea that there's anything like a 3-way Conservative-inclusive dynamic here--even in the Liberal-sickbed Harper years, they came nowhere close to winning, and somewhere within proximity of the 10th percentile seem their out-of-contention current norm here.)
	25/05/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
Lutte toujours serrée dans Châteauguay-Lacolle, l'une des rares luttes à trois qui implique habituellement les Conservateurs dans la région de Montréal. Tout dépendra de la performance des Libéraux et des Bloquistes au niveau national. Trop tôt pour désigner un gagnant.