Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:16:44

Constituency Profile


Benoit, Jeff

Bournaki, Pierre

Gagnon, Marc

Lafrance, André

O'Hara, Patrick

Olivier, Frédéric

Shanahan, Brenda

Wolker, Hannah


Brenda Shanahan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



905.92 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Brenda Shanahan ** 2011838.40%
Claudia Valdiv 1947937.20%
Hugues Laplante 585111.20%
Marika Lalime 40057.60%
Meryam Haddad 19293.70%
Jeff Benoit 5631.10%
Marc Gagnon 3930.70%
Pierre Chénier 640.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Brenda Shanahan 2024539.10%
Sophie Stanké 1261524.40%
Sylvain Chicoine ** 1198623.10%
Philippe St-Pierre 580511.20%
Jency Mercier 9821.90%
Linda Sullivan 1490.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1050.23%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.68% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.32% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte toujours trڈs serrژe dans Ch‰teauguay-Lacolle. Si certains secteurs sont plus nationalistes, en descendant vers le sud, les libژraux ont toujours de solides assises. La remontژe du Bloc ne semble pas, pour le moment, assez importante pour leur permettre d'arracher le comtژ, les agrژgateurs de sondage penchant toujours vers les libژraux.
14/09/21 George
Mainstreet of Sept 4th has a close race, Liberal leading BQ 34 to 28 among decided voters. With BQ up since the 4th, probably more like a tie now.
15/08/21 A.S.
The Argenteuil-LPN of the S Shore: something I handed to the Libs in '19 on big-share-in-'15 grounds, yet it turned out to be a Bloc-wave-grazed squeaker instead--but hey, Shanahan still survived! And it was *really* polarized, w/Shanahan's support heavily concentrated within Chateauguay proper, yet beyond a single poll in Mercier, there were no rural/exurban interior Lib polls until a pair in the Lacolle end, close to and along the US border. The Grits should thank their blessings that Chateauguay's a ‘mixed’ town; it's what saved their skin here. (Oh, and I contest the idea that there's anything like a 3-way Conservative-inclusive dynamic here--even in the Liberal-sickbed Harper years, they came nowhere close to winning, and somewhere within proximity of the 10th percentile seem their out-of-contention current norm here.)
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte toujours serrée dans Châteauguay-Lacolle, l'une des rares luttes à trois qui implique habituellement les Conservateurs dans la région de Montréal. Tout dépendra de la performance des Libéraux et des Bloquistes au niveau national. Trop tôt pour désigner un gagnant.

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