Election Prediction Project

Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:18:40

Constituency Profile


Amyot, Frédéric

Bernier, Alexandra

Desbiens, Caroline

Du Verle, Frédéric

Laplante, Chantal

Laprise, Véronique

Lefrançois, Jenniefer

Lépine, Vicky


Caroline Desbie

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



11179.73 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Caroline Desbie 1840736.40%
Sylvie Boucher ** 1504429.70%
Manon Fortin 1060820.90%
Gérard Briand 28415.60%
Richard Guertin 13552.70%
Raymond Bernier 13352.60%
Jean-Claude Parent 10452.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sylvie Boucher 1690333.50%
Jean-Roger Vigneau 1355626.90%
Sébastien Dufour 965019.10%
Jonathan Tremblay ** 930618.40%
Patrick Kerr 8591.70%
Mario Desjardins Pelchat 1820.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 250.05%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.51% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (17.49% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 R.O.
Caroline Desbiens was first elected here in 2019 when she defeated cpc mp Sylvie Boucher who is not running again. Replaced by new candidate Veronique Laprise. The riding has been decided by low % of the vote with the last 2 winners only getting into the 30 % range. It’s also an odd riding starts in the suburbs of Quebec city but stretches into a large rural area along the St Lawrence. A lot of bloc history but the conservatives did find a way to win here in 2015. So a tough one to figure out.
11/09/20 J.F. Breton
ہ moins d'une énorme surprise dans Québec, où Duclos serait battu par le Bloc, cette circonscription de Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Ile-d'Orléans-Charlevoix sera sans doute le dernier fief du Bloc dans la grande région de Québec. Plus nationaliste, surtout dans sa portion Est, que Beauport-Limoilou, le Bloc devrait résister, beaucoup grâce au mouvement d'humeur qui a suivi le débat en anglais.
10/09/21 LyoGrlx
With the CPC up and the BQ down in the province, this riding may send a DEEP blue MP in Ottawa on the 20th. The Liberals aren't really a factor here.
18/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
I think comparing one part of Canada to another part of Canada is inherently simplistic and wrong - Especially if one of those parts is 95%* francophone. Beauport + Charlevoix is inherently complex - remember this is the riding that booted Pauline out in 2014 to a Liberal before CAQ surged to 1st place in 2018.
Historically, Liberals do well in the Charlevoix, can Trudeau create a Liberal wave through Beauport and Limoilou, I doubt it but stranger things have happened in QC elections in the last 10 years.
For the record, 338 says the CPC are leading with the BQ second.
*I checked, 98.6%.
17/08/21 A.S.
As a reflection of poor national CPC numbers and the lack of a Sylvie Boucher factor, I'm a *bit* hesitant about giving them the benefit of the doubt--of course, outerburban Beauport *could* still work on the Cons' behalf, but only in the event of a bigger national wave, or perhaps their unexpectedly stealing CAQ-centric Bloc thunder. And any riding that includes the Charlevoix region always felt more consummately suited to the Bloc, anyway--or at most, the way that it relates to the Beauport end of the riding is a coarser version of the way that Sunshine Coast relates to West Van.
18/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte intéressante à prévoir entre le Bloc et les Conservateurs, avec les Libéraux qui pourraient jouer les trouble-fêtes. Trop tôt pour déclarer un gagnant.

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