Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-14 12:15:05

Constituency Profile


Coly, René-Paul

Cyr, Wayne

Lacroix, Michel Marc

Lamontagne, Marie-Christine

Palardy-Dion, Jacques

Paul-Hus, Pierre

Pelletier, Daniel


Pierre Paul-Hus

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



111.44 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Pierre Paul-Hus ** 2248438.00%
Alain D'E 1605327.20%
René-Paul Coly 1258421.30%
Guillaume Bourdeau 45547.70%
Samuel Moisan-Domm 20423.50%
Joey Pronovost 13792.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pierre Paul-Hus 2460842.20%
Jean Côté 1352523.20%
Anne-Marie Day ** 1169020.10%
Marc Antoine Turmel 717712.30%
Nathalie Baudet 12562.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 1890.35%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.41% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/08/21 A.S.
Well, we *are* dealing with a national Conservative party that's showing signs of blowing cylinders; and with that in mind, a non-prediction bows to the technical likelihood of this being the most vulnerable of the seats they presently hold in the Capitale-Nationale (unless Blaney's retirement opens something up). However, Quebec Conservativism might well be a power unto itself by now, and it's not like the Lib or Bloc alternatives would be terribly prepossessing or galvanizing--and the fact that the Bloc still couldn't come within 10 points in '19 is telling. Inertia is PP-H's friend--but national party quicksand could still be his enemy, and I'll allow for that.
13/08/21 Dr Bear
I do not understand why this is listed as TCTC. The Quebec City region is largely reliably fertile ground for the Conservatives and this seat is no exception. It will take a massive swing away from the CPC in Quebec to shift this seat. Unless the BQ or the Liberals have a star candidate, then Conservative hold.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
La région de la Capitale-Nationale est un terreau fertile pour les Conservateurs. A titre d'exemple, lors d'un récent sondage au niveau provoncial, la CAQ obtenait 52% et le PCQ 14%, les partis de gauche (PQ et QS) ne récoltant que des miettes. L'appui conservateur est d'autant plus facile dans les couronnes de Québec, comme Charlesbourg. Pierre-Paul Hus est très présent et bien en vue. Réélection des Conservateurs.

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