Election Prediction Project

Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:09:54

Constituency Profile


Blanchette-Joncas, Maxime

Bureau-Civil, Noémi

Gagnon, France

Hodges, Megan

Lajoie, Léonie

Lajoie, Sylvain

Raymond, Michel

Tardy, Jean


Maxime Blanchette-Jonc

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7741.02 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Maxime Blanchette-Jonc 1731437.80%
Guy Caron ** 1305028.50%
Chantal Pilon 1009522.10%
Nancy Brassard-Fortin 40738.90%
Jocelyn Rioux 8241.80%
Pierre Lacombe 2320.50%
Lysane Picker-Paquin 1790.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Guy Caron ** 1937443.10%
Pierre Cadieux 1259428.00%
Johanne Carignan 867319.30%
Francis Fortin 33637.50%
Louise Boutin 6691.50%
Sébastien CôRhino Côrriveau 2730.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

01/09/21 R.O.
Maxime Joncas was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp. this riding had been ndp from 2011-15 when Guy Caron mp although before that a long time bloc quebecois riding in rural Quebec. Likely to stay bloc this year.
18/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
I don't know where Sam is getting his information, but according to R-C, Guy Caron is doing other things this fall (Guy Caron annonce sa candidature أ  la mairie de Rimouski).
I think the Liberals may move into a solid 2nd place but one has to fancy the BQ unless something happens to destroy the party.
17/08/21 Sam
You've got to admire Caron's decision to run again - he has the credentials to be doing something far more fruitful. He always seemed to come across to pundits as far stronger than his result suggested - ultimately the NDP weren't going to perform well here, and he lost in line with the national picture. I see no reason why he will win in this environment.
17/08/21 A.S.
As w/Berthier-Maskinonge, it's an all-but-inevitability that '19's vestigial NDP incumbency vote will float to the BQ default--it accords perfectly well w/pre-Guy Caron voting patterns, as well as enduring provincial patterns. (Though it's interesting that the Libs managed a 20%+ share anyway in '19--maybe the overwrought Lib predictions that year *weren't* so misguided?)
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Sans le retour de Caron du NPD, peu de risque pour le Bloc dans cette région péquiste au provincial, et ce, malgré les déboires judiciaires du député provincial Harold LeBel.

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