Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:16:45

Constituency Profile


Alarie, Marilou

Corcos, Michelle

Cotton, Lawrence

Desjardins, Dany

Duhamel, Vincent

Lefebvre, Susanne

Panton, Andrew

Richard, Maryse

St-Onge, Pascale

Stogowski, Alexis


Lyne Bessette

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2783.46 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lyne Bessette 2345038.20%
Monique Alla 2115234.40%
Bruno Côté 769712.50%
Sylvie Jetté 48878.00%
Normand Dallaire 33025.40%
François Poulin 4560.70%
Steeve Cloutier 3100.50%
Lawrence Cotton 1870.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Denis Paradis 2574443.90%
Catherine Lusson 1438324.50%
Patrick Melchior 1025217.50%
Charles Poulin 672411.50%
Cindy Moynan 13772.30%
Patrick Paine 1950.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 J.F. Breton
Une victoire conservatrice ici? Non, je ne crois pas. L'appel de Franچois Legault en faveur des conservateurs est tombژ carrژment ˆ plat. La candidate libژrale, Pascale St-Onge, semble mener une solide campagne. Malgrژ la remontژe du Bloc dans les derniers jours, elle devrait l'emporter par une courte majoritژ, ce que les agrژgateurs de sondages ont sur leur radar.
09/09/21 Baron of Whitby
Legault's endorsement of the CPC on September 9 is bad news for the Liberals. This could easily be a CPC gain.
03/09/21 prognosticator15
A prominent businessman and past finance manager of a large company Vincent Duhamel runs here, and O'Toole has all but tapped him as future finance minister in case of a still unlikely Cons government in power. This is a long shot in a riding that has not been Conservative since Mulroney times (with Gabrielle Bertrand), but it is worth watching as a case of Cons putting emphasis on competence vs. Lib incompetence with some 'star' candidates. There is no Cons wave in Quebec so far, but it is an Eastern Townships riding bordering one with a Cons MP, and Cons are likeliest to expand in this area of Quebec. I predict it to be an interesting competitive race on election night, with a possibility to go beyond an expected Lib-Bloc close race, in particular as candidates matter a lot in Quebec politics, public opinion shifts often, and two key candidates, Bloc and Lib, are little known individuals with a background in communications, and not sport starts (like Lyne Bessette was - no more Lib boost in Bromont). Cons candidate even claims local connections by having a house in Magog (if it matters to many). This is not a definite prediction, but the race might be three-way competitive and the one to watch if Cons keep improving in the polls to expand beyond their traditional non-urban areas and Quebec City area.
01/09/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as rookie mp Lyne Bessette decided not to run again. The riding has been liberal since 2015 but had been ndp and bloc Quebecois before that. None of the new candidates stand out in my view so the race here likely comes down to how things play out in Quebec this election.
19/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Liberals lost ground here in 2019 after the sudden retirement of long-time MP Denis Paradis. Lyne Bessette stepped in at short notice, but now she is leaving after one term. However, with the Liberals leading the BQ in Quأ©bec by 7 points in the latest Lأ©ger poll, this riding probably still leans Liberal.
15/08/21 A.S.
Even as the most reliable Eastern Townships riding for the Libs, Brome-Missisquoi was never particularly *safe* safe--they really required that gargantuan Anglo-Federalist advantage in your usual bulwarks like Lac-Brome, and a touch of Paradis-family eternality, to endure; and as during the Harper years, didn't always succeed even at that. Post-Paradis, Bessette saw a greatly reduced margin in '19, and what had been a polling-station landslide in '15 now saw cyan dominance in places like Farnham and Magog--though her athletic credentials might have helped in sporty Bromont. With her gone; well, at least there's an ancestral Liberal machine in place to help any successor, and it *really* requires thorough humiliation and supercession of the Grits to knock this out of the picture. Still, it'd require some drastic Bloc backsliding to make this anything but close--and provincially, CAQ presently rules this territory like the Libs don't matter.
03/08/21 J.F. Breton
Information complémentaire: Lyne Bessette ne se représente pas, ce qui rend la course d'autant plus intéressante. Source: https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1809659/lyne-bessette-elections-federales-parti-liberal
25/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lyne Bessette a une aura personnelle comme ex-athlète, mais ce fut tout de même serré lors du scrutin de 2019. Ce sera sans doute encore serré, quoi que je penche pour sa réélection. Il faudra attendre de connaître la performance du Bloc au niveau national pour en tirer des conclusions.

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