Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-14 23:16:23

Constituency Profile


Bellemare, Alexandre

Brosseau, Ruth Ellen

Brown, Denis

Lamirande, Steven

Perron, Yves

Requilé, Laurence

Sénécal, Geneviève

Soulières, Léo


Yves Perr

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4150.60 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yves Perr 2120037.60%
Ruth Ellen Brosseau ** 1969835.00%
Christine Poirier 779613.80%
Josée Bélanger 581210.30%
Éric Laferrière 10081.80%
Luc Massé 4280.80%
Alain Bélanger 1540.30%
Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville 1510.30%
Danny Légaré 1070.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ruth Ellen Brosseau ** 2294242.20%
Yves Perron 1403725.80%
Pierre Destrempes 1103220.30%
Marianne Foucrault 554810.20%
Cate Burton 8471.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 3040.62%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (87.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (12.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 George
Mainstreet of September 10 has a healthy Bloc lead with 38% of decided.
Then 18 Lib 15 NDP 15 Con.
14/09/21 KXS
It appears that the Bloc has garnered some momentum after the English debates and after Legault's (tepid and half-hearted) endorsement of them and the Tories.
Meanwhile, there doesn't seem to be any momentum for the NDP in Quebec and some polls show they are sliding a bit since the debates.
Ruth Ellen Brosseau is clearly popular in her community. But I'm not sure if it's enough to defeat a BQ incumbent in a BQ friendly environment.
14/09/21 Sam
Given the loss of REB's incumbency (even if she is running, I expect some loss with Perron being a strong advocate for farmers), plus the Bloc being reenergised, particularly in these very strong CAQ/PQ areas (especially the area overlapping with the Berthier provincial riding. And that spells doom for REB's victory path - given the 2015 result most tactical voters for her probably already did so, and her path then relies on the Bloc losing ground. Possible, but looking increasingly unlikely.
03/09/21 jeff316
Brosseau will keep the NDP vote at around 25%, rather than the 10% it would have been without her candidacy. She's the Youpii of Québec politics.
31/08/21 Dr Bear
Ruth is back for the NDP and suddenly this race has gotten interesting. The BQ have been a little flaccid lately in their support, and while the NDP have few chances of gains in Quebec, REB has polled better locally than her party provincially. Coupled that with Federalist voters supporting her over the paper candidates their preferred party is offering and suddenly this seat is getting a slight tinge of orange.
28/08/21 Marco Ricci
Former NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau announced today that she is running to win back this seat. Perhaps the riding should be moved to TCTC?
27/08/21 BrianM
REB is in the race this will likely be TCTC until close to election day
27/08/21 Physastr Master
Ruth Ellen Brosseau just announced she is running. Without her this would return to a strong BQ result like the rest of the region, with her this should be close again, and even a subtle national surge would tip it her way. TCTC.
27/08/21 R.O.
This has typically been a bloc quebecois riding and mp Yves Parron is running for re election although had been ndp from 2011-15 when Ruth Ellen Brosseau mp. She just announced today she’s running in this election as a candidate for the ndp she came a reasonably close second in 2019.
15/08/21 A.S.
I'm hearing talk of REB being back--which of course, would be no guarantee of her being *electorally* back; even so, it'd be interesting to monitor. But there's also no guarantee of a REB-less NDP being reduced to single-digits 4th, though to pull away from that low threshold might require Jagmeet wowing'em on Tout Le Monde A Parle (which isn't out of the question). And if that happened *with* REB running, it'd *really* burnish her comeback-kid credentials. But because we're not at that stage (yet?), best to abide by the predictable--particularly as w/o REB, the seat would probably have been pretty solidly Bloc, anyway...
08/08/21 Stevo
I suppose, given Quebec's erratic electoral history, it was only a matter of time before Ruth Ellen lost. With her gone, I expect the NDP to drop to 4th place and possibly under 10% share.
04/08/21 Laurence Putnam
Without Brousseau this should be unquestionably in the BQ column. NPD vote will be lucky to crack double digits this time.
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Sans le retour de Ruth pour le NPD, le Bloc court peu de risque ici. Le député en place ne pourra qu'accroître sa majorité.

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