Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-11 22:30:21

Constituency Profile


Béliveau, Marie-Josée

Blanchet, Yves-François

Blondin, Michel

Ejov, Danila

Gélinas Larrain, Fabrice

Grimard, Mario

Hamel, Marie-Chantal

Robichaud, Stéphane

Thibault-Vincent, Thomas

Vachon, Benjamin


Yves-François Blanch

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



378.26 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Yves-François Blanch 3506850.50%
Marie-Chantal Hamel 1605923.10%
Matthew Dubé ** 1008614.50%
Véronique Laprise 43056.20%
Pierre Carrier 32554.70%
Chloé Bernard 5120.70%
Michel Blondin 2050.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Matthew Dubé ** 2064131.10%
Karine Desjardins 1949429.30%
Yves Lessard 1838727.70%
Claude Chalhoub 61739.30%
Fodé Kerfalla Yansané 14982.30%
Michael Maher 2450.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 673411.47%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/08/21 R.O.
Bloc Quebecois leader Yves Francois Blanchets home riding which had somehow been an ndp riding in 2011-15 although at its core a long time bloc Quebecois riding so expect him to hold it.
15/08/21 A.S.
Hard to believe that this was one of '15's NDP survivors--and thanks to who was running against him, he got the only sub-15% Dipper-incumbent share in '19 (which *might* have been impressive given the inherent sitting-duckness of the *entire* Quebec caucus under Jagmeet). Blanchet's suburban constituency suits the present neo-CAQ mood of the Bloc, as opposed to its former neo-progressivism echoing Duceppe's Laurier-Sainte-Marie--so little chance of a shift; even the Chamblyward reverb from Greater Montreal Liberalism is weak. (Such weakness is a veiled explanation of why it stayed NDP in '15 in the first place.)
11/05/21 J.F. Breton
Yves-François Blanchet a toutes les chances de remporter la prochaine élection dans Beloeil-Chambly. Il est excellent communicateur, combatif et ne s'en laissera pas imposer dans les débats. Prime au chef.

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