Election Prediction Project

Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:53:24

Constituency Profile


Arcand, Raymond

Gagnon Gauthier, Marie-Philippe

Khuon, Chamroeun

Lefebvre, Hélène

Richard, Marie-Christine

Vaillancourt, Daniel

Vien, Dominique


Steven Blaney

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



3202.78 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Steven Blaney ** 3228350.10%
Sébastien Bouchard-Théber 1475422.90%
Laurence Harvey 1073416.70%
Khuon Chamroeun 32565.10%
André Voyer 19253.00%
Marc Johnston 13072.00%
Yves Gilbert 1880.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Steven Blaney ** 3187250.90%
Jacques Turgeon 1296120.70%
Jean-Luc Daigle 851613.60%
Antoine Dubé 721711.50%
André Bélisle 20323.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

21/08/21 R.O.
Longtime cpc mp Steven Blaney is not running again although he has been replaced by Dominique Vien a former Quebec mna as the conservative candidate in what has been a cpc riding since 2006. Not sure if the other parties are able to mount much here or not so likely to stay cpc.
17/08/21 A.S.
Well, Mad Max going mad has something to do with it, certainly; but it's still hard to believe that this was the only remaining Con majority riding in QC last time around--or maybe just that Blaney was able to hold on to his majority in the first place, particularly as he wasn't as ‘charismatic’ as Mad Max was, for better or worse--and in the end, for better. I guess that's what using one's tenure in office to build a solid riding apparatus is all about. Expect post-Blaney Levis-Lauzon deflation (hey, it's an urban centre, not ‘natural’ CPC territory by any means), but don't expect the riding to flip on an over 2:1 advantage--and besides, relative to any potential federal-party woes, the Chaudiere-Appalaches CPC incumbency forces are practically in an airtight orbit of their own...
21/07/21 Marco Ricci
Long-time Conservative MP Steven Blaney has announced he will not run in the next election. The Conservatives may lose some votes, but the strength of the Conservative vote will probably still allow them to hold the riding with a new candidate.
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
Les régions de la Capitale-Nationale et de Chaudière-Appalaches sont des terreaux fertiles pour les Conservateurs. Steven Blaney demeure très populaire auprès des électeurs de la circonscription. Il n'est pas du tout flamboyant, mais efficace, dit-on.

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