Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:13:12

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Alupa

Elhak, Dalila

Garon, Camille Esther

Gingras, Ann

Moreau, Claude

Verret, Lyne

Vignola, Julie


Julie Vigno

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33.44 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Julie Vigno 1514930.20%
Alupa Clarke ** 1318526.30%
Antoine Bujold 1302025.90%
Simon-Pierre Beaudet 559911.20%
Dalila Elhak 21274.20%
Alicia Bédard 10332.10%
Claude Moreau 780.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alupa Clarke 1546130.60%
Raymond Côté ** 1288125.50%
Antoine Bujold 1285425.40%
Doni Berberi 746714.80%
Dalila Elhak 12202.40%
Francis Bedard 4230.80%
Claude Moreau 1280.30%
Bladimir Laborit 1240.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2210.46%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (94.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/09/20 J.F. Breton
Circonscription ciblée par les conservateurs. Le sondage Mainstreet du début septembre place les bloquistes en troisième place, derrière les libéraux. Ils auront sans doute remonté dans les intentions de vote, suivant le psychodrame du débat en anglais. Mais la sortie de vote des conservateurs sera sans doute plus motivée que celle des bloquistes, le Bloc étant uniquement une valeur refuge au moindre mouvement émotif des Québécois. Alupa Clarke retrouvera son siège.
10/09/21 LyoGrlx
Mainstreet did a poll in this riding and had the CPC 4 points in front of the Liberals, putting the current Bloc MP in 3rd position. Of course the race will be tight until Election Day, but if the numbers stay where they are until then, Mr Clarke could be back in Ottawa after losing this seat to the Bloc two years ago. I expect similar results as 2015/19, giving the CPC enough votes to slip through the Libs and Bloc in this weird working-class/suburbia riding dynamic.
09/09/21 QuebecCityOliver
I suspect this will be one of the last predictions made on this site simply because it is going to be hard to predict who will win - got a polling firm calling last night during a blackout that took down a large part of downtown Québec City - and also my landline.
There is no PPC but there is the weird Free Party - Very hard to call, are there some weird Duclos tailcoats / Sol Zanetti crossovers to the Liberals that can give a 3rd seat to the LPC in Québec City or can the Bloc find a bounce? Who the hell knows!
03/09/21 R.O.
Julie Vignola was first elected here in 2019 beating Conservative mp Alupa Clarke by a small margin who is running again this election . The riding has bounced between bloc and conservatives in recent elections. With the cpc doing better in Quebec and riding being in Quebec city area its one that’s likely to be competitive.
17/08/21 A.S.
Weird 3-way dynamic here--and potentially 4-way, in case some kind of ‘Jagmeet's Limoilou’ fire is triggered. Until the Bloc caught fire, what many were expecting in '19 was a ‘CPC outerburbs, Lib inner city’ type of race--well, CPC held the outerburbs, but the Libs wound up ironically tag-teaming the Bloc in the inner polls, and in fact the Cons were reduced to *4th* party status in much of the heart of Limoilou. This time, who knows--and if it's Bloc vs CPC, it'll only be in terms of a ‘polling station race’, much like '19. Because even if Alupa Clarke's running again, his party's straits certainly doesn't guarantee 2nd place for him, particularly as he was already within 200 votes of 3rd in '19...
15/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Too early to say, but, of course, one has to predict that someone will win.
My home riding so always of great interest to me. I think that Clarke will struggle to reach 30% of the vote - obviously, it is possible to win ridings in Quebec City with 30% but one has to assume that the BQ will surpass that percentage.
I think the Quebec riding is a lock for Duclos which is kind of silly when your majority was 1000 and then cut to 325. I still think his vote will continue to go up and if the Liberals were to target Beauport-Limoilou they could win it.
18/05/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte intéressante à prévoir entre le Bloc et les Conservateurs, avec les Libéraux qui pourraient jouer les trouble-fêtes. Trop tôt pour déclarer un gagnant.

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