Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-10 21:52:58

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Maxime

Giguère, Chantale

Jacques-Côté, François

Langlois, Philippe-Alexandre

Lehoux, Richard

Tanguay, Sébastien

Thibodeau, Solange

Wisniowski, Andrzej


Richard Lehoux

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4103.54 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Richard Lehoux 2286038.50%
Maxime Bernier ** 1679628.30%
Guillaume Rodrig 841014.20%
Adam Veilleux 697111.70%
François Jacques-Côté 18473.10%
Josiane Fortin 14612.50%
Maxime Bernier 10841.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Maxime Bernier ** 3291058.90%
Adam Veilleux 1244222.30%
Daniel Royer 54439.70%
Stéphane Trudel 41447.40%
Céline Brown MacDonald 9431.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 ReubenJames
The tide has changed and unfortunately Bernier will benefit. Jason Kenney’s emergence from 5-weeks of hiding has imploded badly for conservative hopes - to a greater impact on the prairies and Ontario - the ripples will chase some votes to leak to the PPC. Even worse, Legault’s clumsy endorsement of said Tories is likely to backfire, sending both blue Bloc members & the disaffected conservative crowd into anti-vaxxer Bernier’s open arms.
17/09/21 Jake H.
Calling this for the Cons is not exactly a bold prediction at this point. Even Maxime Bernier and the PPC party know they don't have a shot here, and he will be half a continent away on election night, claiming some form of victory for increasing their vote totals by a wide margin over their disastrous 2019 showing. But Bernier himself is not going to come any closer to taking his own seat, and I don't think they have any real shot to win any seat in the nation.
16/09/21 prognosticator15
I agree with pro-Conservative posts here, and in particular with the idea that a widely spread-out PPC support is unlikely to result in Bernier win here. The rise in PPC support elsewhere is not enough to claim this seat. When it is an unusual circumstance of mostly conservative supporters competing with one another for a seat (left minority will most likely shift to the Bloc here), the choice for most is based on realism of getting to power rather than on feelings of stronger opposition to vaccine mandates by the PPC or other strong PPC points.
15/09/21 R.O.
True Bernier’s peoples party has seen a rise in the polls compared to 2019 election although it hasn’t occurred as much in Quebec when compared to other areas of Canada. Bernier has been touring western Canada mostly rural cpc ridings heavily as well is Ontario and even New Brunswick. I also just saw a post online which says he’s spending election night in Saskatoon Sask not Beauce, that is posted on the pcc twitter page. The fact he isn’t spending election night in Beauce a sure sign he doesn’t expect to win it back and instead focused on the gains being made by his party elsewhere. Although I’d be surprised if they actually win a seat this election.
13/09/21 Mid-Islander
I agree with Physastr Master on this one. I'm under the impression that the PPC's curious boost in the polls right now is because Bernier's anti-mask and anti-vaxx shenanigans makes the People's Party the only home for that certain kind of people. However, just because they're polling better than the Green Party doesn't mean they'll actually start winning seats. The Greens are able to win seats by having somewhat of a cross-party appeal, a great example being Elizabeth May winning in a fairly conservative riding. The People's Party does not have this, and I doubt that the people of Beauce are conservative enough to want to elect 2021 Bernier when they already rejected the arguably tamer 2019 Bernier, and especially so now that he's not even the incumbent anymore.
I also couldn't help but chuckle at the Progressive Canadian Party's logo being accidentally used instead of the actual PPC logo on a couple of the predictions below.
12/09/20 seasaw
Maxime Bernier will win this time for the PPC. PPC is now polling well ahead of the Green Party and it looks like they're going to get more votes than Greens have ever gotten
10/09/21 GritBusters
I'm not willing to call this one either. Intuitively, one would expect the PPC's mini-surge in the polls to hand Beauce to ‘favourite son’ Bernier, a man who withstood both the Orange Crush (unfortunately) and Trudeaumania (less unfortunately).
The problem with this analysis is that the Conservatives are also having a decent election so far, and they have also built up considerable institutional strength both in Beauce and in the surrounding riding.
Too close to call, enjoy the debates folks.
09/09/21 Physastr Master
Just due to the nature of Bernier's campaign I'm tempted to think that even if he got 10% of the popular vote he would likely still lose Beauce. This is because of how polarized his support is. His main draw right now is being the only party opposing lockdowns, which gives him a strong chance at winning 15% of the electorate, but alienates him from the other 85%. I don't see that 15% having any strong concentration, so this could end up like the elections with a strong UKIP in the UK - strong vote totals greater than the Lib Dems, but failing to elect Farage in his riding. I expect this to be one of very few ridings that see PPC support drop.
07/09/21 Jon
With the PPC starting to gain traction in a big way around Canada, I see this being a close race with Bernier winning this seat. Might be the only seat the PPC win, but with them polling higher than the green party, I think this will be the seat they will win. We still have 2 weeks left in the campaign.....anything can happen.
06/09/21 Rational Optimist
This should be Too Close to Call. Other observers have it as a CPC/PPC toss-up. The Star and other media outlets on the weekend identified Bernier retaking this as a very real possibility given the PPC's improving polling numbers provincially and nationally. I think that the CPC have the edge, but it is far from a sure thing.
06/09/21 Drew613
A new Sept. 1st large sample Leger Quebec-only poll has PPC support at only 7% in Chaudière-Appalaches (aka la région de Beauce) while the CPC are at 43% - their only > 40% support region of Quebec. The riding of Beauce is one to watch on election night for sure, but even if 100% of the PPC's 7% regional support is in the Beauce riding, ‘Mad Max’ would likely still come up short to the CPC incumbent. https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rapport-politique-federale-1-sept-2021-VF.pdf
28/08/21 Neal
Sorry to all those who are cheering for Mad max here, but I don't see it happening this time around either. The voters hve been served well by Richard LeHoux and will re elect him by as healthy a margin as last time, if not more so. PPC has neither the war chest nor the profile it had last time. And as far as the lock downs go, Those who are angry about them shoukld and will direct it toward the level of government that imposed the lock downs to begin with.
Suggestion to Mad Max: You hve a better chance of being elected on your platform at the provincial level uner the Parti Conservateur due Quebec banner. PCQ is polling a strong second in Beauce right now, and Max would easily carry either one of the Beauces provincilly.
25/08/21 C B
Yes, I think that conditions are somewhat better for the PPC this election. They have very distinct and clear policy differences with the other parties. They don’t argue this, rather embrace it. The media and polling are very clearly trying to keep them out of the conversation. It’s fairly plain to see. For how long remains to be seen. At some point, although it won’t be inclusion in the debates, they will have to acknowledge their presence. They could very well play the spoiler in this election if their campaign catches fire. Bernier is very much in play here.
22/08/21 marco
I no longer feel confident predicting a Tory hold here anymore. While that's still the most likely outcome, perhaps a Bernier comeback might be in the cards after all. We shall see. People are fed up with continual lockdowns (looking toward Europe and America with jealousy) and the national mood is quite different, angrier than 2019. Whether that will translate in this riding, only time can tell. But there's now a real chance the PPC will build on their performance from two years ago rather than dropping into freefall mode, which didn't seem possible even a short couple weeks prior.
21/08/21 R.O.
This had been Maxime Berniers riding although it returned to the cpc and Richard Lehoux is the mp. The peoples party is doing better in the polls this year although Bernier is spending very little time in his own riding . he is always at events in other parts of the country such as Ontario and travels a lot despite the covid 19 pandemic . its also unclear if Bernier will be invited back to the debates or not .
17/08/21 A.S.
If Bernier's remained ‘surprisingly relevant’, it's not necessarily in an *electable* way--though he's definitely been *visible*. And while it's most likely that his own riding will tell him to get lost, I can actually see his party picking up in the polls *at large* regardless of whether he's in the debate--and rather than not helping them, the pandemic actually gives them a sense of purpose. But yes, not a personally-electable sense of purpose; more of an imagined-moral-victory sense of purpose...
17/08/21 Marco Ricci
The People's Party appears to be up a couple of points in some of the latest polls, but whether that is enough for Maxime Bernier to regain this riding remains to be seen.
15/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Mad Max had a chance in 2019. This time I suspect his vote will collapse to less than 20% - the pandemic has almost no chance of helping him and he will look more and more isolated.
Easy CPC win.
15/08/21 marco
Safe Tory hold, as Bernier is no longer the incumbent this time around and won't be participating in the federal leaders' debates (which confers both credibility and visibility)
05/08/21 Stevo
This should be too close to call for the time being. Bernier is running again and he's managed to remain surprisingly relevant these past few years. Quebec has taken a socially conservative turn in recent years and the province isn't a stranger to electing quirky populist conservatives (remember André Arthur). Uphill battle for Bernier but he could well pull it off.
04/07/21 Chris of Montreal
Bernier a perdu par dix points de pourcentage en 2019. C'est tout à fait surmontable. Beaucoup dépendra de la situation de la pandémie. Dans l'éventualité d'un nouveau confinement, son discours anti-lockdown pourrait convaincre des gens peu enclins à voter de le faire.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
Je ne modifie pas ma prédiction, mais j'y apporte un complément d'information. Maxime Bernier sera candidat du PPC en Beauce: https://www.enbeauce.com/actualites/politique/427660/maxime-bernier-prepare-ses-troupes-a-un-scrutin-automnal
09/05/21 J.F. Breton
On ne peut pas dire que Richard Lehoux a brillé par sa présence depuis son élection, mais il représente une circonscription profondément conservatrice. Maxime Bernier, même s'il se représentait en Beauce, s'est brûlé politiquement. Et sa prestation de plus en plus populiste et très libertaire lui aura fait perdre des plumes, particulièrement dans la partie nord de la circonscription. Réélection des Conservateurs ici, peu importe le candidat.

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