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Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales


Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:09:06
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:



Barnabé, Eric

Dumas, Germain

Gendron, Mélanie

Marchand, Christel

Michaud, Kristina

Savoie, Louis-?ric


Incumbent:

Kristina Micha

References:
Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density

71897
74547

38122
33093

14461.67 km²
5.00/km²


2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kristina Micha 1850051.40%
Rémi Massé ** 1218833.90%
Natasha Tremblay 27567.70%
Rémi-Jocelyn Côté 14354.00%
James Morrison 6991.90%
Éric Barnabé 2100.60%
Mathieu Castonguay 1800.50%


2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rémi Massé 1437839.50%
Kédina Fleury-Samson 764121.00%
Joël Charest 734020.20%
Jean-François Fortin ** 422911.60%
André Savoie 22286.10%
Sherri Springle 3651.00%
Éric Normand 1750.50%


2011 Results (redistributed)

480813.16%
972626.63%
847623.21%
1259934.50%
9182.51%


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)


   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (79.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


   Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
   (20.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide


26/08/21 R.O.
24.146.13.237
Kristina Michaud was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp although this has been a long time bloc Quebecois riding back to 93. Only exception being 2015 when the liberals briefly held the riding so likely she’ll hold it.
17/08/21 A.S.
99.225.52.35
It was rogue weirdness for 2 consecutive elections: first for J-F Fortin being one of '11's 4 Bloc survivors (and the only rookie) thanks to a star Liberal/poteau NDP split; and then for a solid Lib win in '15 thanks to Fortin's post-Bloc dissident run splitting the opposition. But then in '19, it finally turned in a result befitting the last provincial redoubt of PQ landslides--and that the Lib share skidded more than 5 points indicates that its '15 share was heavily ‘conditional. Now w/no Liberal incumbent, you might as well see it slip back to being one of 4 survivors in case the Bloc gets blitzed (though what force could budge the Bloc in its other present-day majority strongholds is a conundrum--Francois Legault as leader of the federal Conservatives?)
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
38.23.227.9
Royaume péquiste de Pascal Bérubé qui, aux prochaines élections provinciales, pourrait bien être l'un des derniers députés péquistes. Sa machine se mettra au service du Bloc, sans aucun doute.



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