Election Prediction Project

Avignon-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:09:06

Constituency Profile


Barnabé, Eric

Dumas, Germain

Gendron, Mélanie

Marchand, Christel

Michaud, Kristina

Savoie, Louis-?ric


Kristina Micha

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



14461.67 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Kristina Micha 1850051.40%
Rémi Massé ** 1218833.90%
Natasha Tremblay 27567.70%
Rémi-Jocelyn Côté 14354.00%
James Morrison 6991.90%
Éric Barnabé 2100.60%
Mathieu Castonguay 1800.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Rémi Massé 1437839.50%
Kédina Fleury-Samson 764121.00%
Joël Charest 734020.20%
Jean-François Fortin ** 422911.60%
André Savoie 22286.10%
Sherri Springle 3651.00%
Éric Normand 1750.50%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
   (79.55% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (20.45% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

26/08/21 R.O.
Kristina Michaud was first elected in 2019 so not a well known mp although this has been a long time bloc Quebecois riding back to 93. Only exception being 2015 when the liberals briefly held the riding so likely she’ll hold it.
17/08/21 A.S.
It was rogue weirdness for 2 consecutive elections: first for J-F Fortin being one of '11's 4 Bloc survivors (and the only rookie) thanks to a star Liberal/poteau NDP split; and then for a solid Lib win in '15 thanks to Fortin's post-Bloc dissident run splitting the opposition. But then in '19, it finally turned in a result befitting the last provincial redoubt of PQ landslides--and that the Lib share skidded more than 5 points indicates that its '15 share was heavily ‘conditional. Now w/no Liberal incumbent, you might as well see it slip back to being one of 4 survivors in case the Bloc gets blitzed (though what force could budge the Bloc in its other present-day majority strongholds is a conundrum--Francois Legault as leader of the federal Conservatives?)
22/05/21 J.F. Breton
Royaume péquiste de Pascal Bérubé qui, aux prochaines élections provinciales, pourrait bien être l'un des derniers députés péquistes. Sa machine se mettra au service du Bloc, sans aucun doute.

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