Election Prediction Project

Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:12:07

Constituency Profile


Destroismaisons, Yves

Lauzon, Stéphane

Louis-Seize, Marie

Lynes, Paul

Vachon, Marc

Welt, Michel


Stéphane Lauzon

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



4958.84 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Stéphane Lauzon ** 1889637.80%
Yves Destroismaiso 1816736.30%
Marie Louis-Seize 604412.10%
Charlotte Boucher Smoley 37587.50%
Marjorie Valiquette 24114.80%
Sherwin Edwards 7211.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Stéphane Lauzon 2209343.30%
Chantal Crête 1265024.80%
Jonathan Beauchamp 952518.70%
Maxime Hupé-Labelle 568011.10%
Audrey Lamarche 11182.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2850.65%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (67.88% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (32.12% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/09/20 J.F. Breton
Pas de mouvement assez grand, au Québec, pour le Bloc pour espérer faire pencher Argenteuil-La Petite Nation dans le giron bloquiste.
06/09/21 Drew613
While this was a nail-bitter in 2019, I think with the Bloc at best steady in Quebec and more likely down, that this will be a Liberal hold. A new Sept. 1st large sample Leger Quebec-only poll has the Libs regionally at 49% support in the Outaouais. That probably translates to the usual 50% Lib support in Gatineau, Hull-Aylmer and Pontiac, meaning Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation is likely at around 40% support for the Grits. https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Rapport-politique-federale-1-sept-2021-VF.pdf
15/08/21 A.S.
I foresaw this as a Lib hold in '19 on ‘good '15 result for a QC hinterland riding’ grounds--didn't foresee the scale of the Bloc surge that'd make it as tight as it was, though against the bigger picture, the fact that it survived *at all* perhaps proved my judgment was sound. Right now, it might depend in part on where the primary growth's coming from--if it's coming from the Gatineau end, it favours the Libs; if it's coming from the Lachute end, it favours the Bloc. Or, 2019 could turn out to be for the Bloc vs the Libs what 2000 was for the Libs vs the Bloc: a bunch of one-election-wonder steals and close calls...
12/05/21 J.F. Breton
Argenteuil-La Petite-Nation est toujours l'objet d'une lutte intéressante, comme ce fut le cas en 2019. Ce sera une lutte Bloc - Libéral. Trop tôt pour désigner un gagnant.

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