Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-05-24 14:08:54

Constituency Profile


Chartrand, Martin

Gonzalez Venegas, Luis Henry

Goulet, Dany

Lacroix, Eric

Legault-Lacasse, William

Lemire, Sébastien

Lirette, Joël

Stewart, Bethany


Sébastien Lemi

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



33444.46 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Sébastien Lemi 2280345.50%
Claude Thibault 1241724.80%
Mario Provencher 753715.00%
Alain Guimond 509310.20%
Aline Bégin 18183.60%
Jacques Girard 4871.00%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Christine Moore ** 2063641.50%
Claude Thibault 1473329.60%
Yvon Moreau 965119.40%
Benoit Fortin 34256.90%
Aline Bégin 8591.70%
Pascal Le Fou Gélinas 4250.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 NJam101
The riding next door to mine. Sژbastien Lemire will have no trouble getting re-elected. I don't think that it will even be close. Lemire is seen as شcoolص guy and gets support just from his personality. BQ leader Yves-Franچois Blanchet spent a LOT of time here during the Summer as well.
25/08/21 R.O.
Sebastien Lemire was first elected in 2019 although this riding has a long bloc Quebecois history. had been ndp in 2011-15 when Christine Moore mp and briefly went liberal in a 2003 by election. But mostly a bloc riding over the years and likely hold .
17/08/21 A.S.
The daunting scale of '19 margin (and the fact that the Lib vote dropped by 5 points from '15; that is, Christine Moore's retirement didn't help them one bit) suggests that status quo is on the horizon. Or if we go by that April poll suggesting that the Liberals are ahead, then the Bloc is in *deep* trouble across the province.
29/06/21 Lolitha
By the time of the election this will not mean much, but a riding poll from April has a close race between Liberals and Bloc, with Liberals ahead by a little:
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Le Bloc a toutes les chances de conserver cette circonscription. Son principal opposant sera libéral, à coup sûr, mais à défaut d'une pointure, les Bloc devrait se maintenir sans trop de problème.

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