Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-15 09:45:58

Constituency Profile


Bérubé, Sylvie

Brazeau, Cédric

Cloutier, Michaël

Corriveau, Steve

Kistabish, Lise

Lameboy, Pauline

Levesque, Jimmy

Pilon, Didier


Sylvie Béru

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



771483.97 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Sylvie Béru 1143236.10%
Isabelle Bergeron 896328.30%
Martin Ferron 524016.60%
Jacline Rouleau 410413.00%
Kiara Cabana-Whiteley 11513.60%
Daniel Simon 3871.20%
Guillaume Lanouette 3791.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Romeo Saganash ** 1277837.00%
Pierre Dufour 1109432.10%
Luc Ferland 639818.50%
Steven Hébert 32119.30%
Patrick Benoît 7792.30%
Mario Gagnon 2580.70%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (0.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 Sam
As I said earlier, the North is the best bit for the Liberals, and whilst this may help turnout a bit, in the Abitibi part of the riding the Bloc are likely to be the most energised party - all data so far on the advanced polls shows they are indeed showing up. I think Bژrubژ has this in the bag, with a similar margin.
15/09/21 NJam101
Most likely a BQ win here. I don't see any reason why it would change. BQ support is fairly strong where most of the population is which includes Val-d'Or, Senneterre, Chibougamau and Matagami. The Cree and Inuit lands will be interesting to see but I'm thinking that the votes from the far North will be quite split between the Liberal and NDP candidates.
07/09/21 R.O.
Tough one to predict as it includes such a large area and southern portion is more traditional quebec in the sense and then you have this huge northern portion with smaller first nation communities all the way to Nunavut. Sylvie Berube won the riding in 2019 for the bloc Quebecois , had been ndp in 2011-15 when Romeo Saganash mp and liberal briefly in the late 90’s. the conservatives also managed some strong results here in the 2008-11 elections. still mostly a bloc riding over the years so they have somewhat of an advantage here
17/08/21 A.S.
I was correct in suggesting that the Bloc-friendly resource-town and service-town demographics could be enough to overtake the far-north FN vote--as well as that the post-Saganash NDP could still be a poll-winner in the reserves. Lib & NDP together would have been enough to overtake the Bloc--not that they could have come to such an accord, of course; and I don't expect them to do so this time, either, though that needn't block Liberal pickup potential. (And the *real* key to that isn't the reserves per se, but ‘Val D'Or moderation’.)
15/08/21 Sam
The Liberals chose a First Nations leader as their candidate here - which is not as big a deal as one might think given that most of the riding's population is in the Val D'Or/Abitibi area, and that is always a good area for them - even putting up a strong fight against Romeo Saganash in the Northern areas. Nevertheless locking up the Northern vote or driving turnout might put them over the top, as this is likely to be a close one. TCTC for now but the Bloc MP is in big trouble.
23/05/21 J.F. Breton
Toujours difficile de se prononcer tant qu'on n'a pas le portrait complet des candidat, ce qui détermine en partie le taux de participation des Inuits du territoire. Ce sera assurément une lutte intéressante, comme toujours, entre le Bloc et les Libéraux.

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