Election Prediction Project

Saint John-Rothesay
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:00:44

Constituency Profile


Long, Wayne

McAllister, Ann

Norton, Mel

Paulin, Don

Pereira, Nicholas


Wayne Long

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



391.02 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Wayne Long ** 1544337.40%
Rodney Weston 1400634.00%
Armand Cormier 504612.20%
Ann McAllister 416510.10%
Adam J. C. Salesse 12603.10%
Stuart Jamieson 11832.90%
Neville Barnett 1500.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Wayne Long 2063448.80%
Rodney Weston ** 1291530.50%
AJ Griffin 741117.50%
Sharon Murphy 13213.10%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2880.80%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Saint John
   (99.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Fundy Royal
   (0.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Marco Ricci
O'Toole was in Saint John a couple of days ago for a campaign stop. This may indicate that internal polls still show a close Liberal vs. Conservative race.
13/09/21 R.O.
This riding has generally seen close races and seen as a swing riding federally between liberals and conservatives. Don’t think any other party has won here in recent memory. Wayne long was first elected here in 2015 and re elected in 2019. The new cpc candidate Mel Norton is also well known in the riding as he was Mayor of Saint John previously. Tough to say how much of a factor ndp or green candidates are this year. Not sure if any main party leaders have been to the riding yet be a surprise if they don’t campaign here but with covid been a tougher year to campaign in far away ridings like NB.
11/09/21 George Knox
Mainstreet has a healthy liberal lead.
07/09/21 Chaz
Saint John has a strong history of voting for the person more than the party. (i.e. Zed vs. Wallace in 2005) Given Norton's fairly well received term as Mayor, this is going to be a close one. It will all depend on the Milligeville and Rothesay voter turnout rates. I think Wayne will take it but barely.
25/08/21 C B
I think bottom line here is that if Fredericton goes Conservative, Saint John will too. If the Liberals drop any more in the polls...
19/08/21 A.S.
If the mayoral strategy worked w/Elsie Wayne, why not w/Mel Norton? Though besides Norton being more presently removed from the mayoralty than Elsie was, Saint John's more of a ‘generic voting pattern’ place than it was in Elsie's time--that is, ‘urban = Liberal’ is more of a default than it used to be, and not just something induced through Conservative collapse. Or, Saint John as a rare CPC pickup in a CPC-unfavourable election would be perfectly in the Elsie spirit--but if it *didn't* happen, it'd be proof that those days are over...
18/08/21 Outside Inside
Politically, Mel Norton is kind of a nothing-burger (a one-term mayor who hasn't held public office in 5 years) but he retains a fair amount of personal popularity in Saint John, perhaps owing to his almost-successful run at the provincial PC leadership in 2018 (after which he promptly disappeared from the public eye until... right now).
Justin Trudeau isn't popular here at all, but incumbent Wayne Long has successfully cultivated some sort of mavericky 'riding first' persona (whether warranted or not) that could help him weather another election, though that only barely worked last time. Unsure of how this might unfold.
12/08/21 Dr Bear
Absolutely one to watch! I honestly think this could be one of the few CPC pick ups this election. It will be very close though. Going to keep an eye on this seat.
09/08/21 KS
This is going to be a close one. Both the Conservative candidate (Mel Norton) and Liberal incumbent (Wayne Long) are well liked. I'm going to say the Conservatives are going to win, but it's going to be a nail biter.
05/08/21 Stevo
Wayne Long is a popular and independent-minded MP. In spite of the close result in 2019 I expect him to win again.
06/06/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte intéressante à prévoir dans cette région conservatrice du sud-ouest du Nouveau-Brunswick où les Libéraux ont réussi, en 2019, à arracher cette circonscription. La lutte risque d'être tout aussi serrée cette fois-ci.

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