Election Prediction Project

New Brunswick Southwest
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-29 13:42:56

Constituency Profile


Hickey, Jason

Reist, John

Sarty, Meryl

Warren, Richard Trevor

Williamson, John


John Williamson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9911.43 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

John Williamson 1945149.10%
Karen Ludwig ** 1011025.50%
Susan Jonah 535213.50%
Douglas Mullin 32518.20%
Meryl Sarty 12143.10%
Abe Scott 2000.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Karen Ludwig 1665643.90%
John Williamson ** 1462538.60%
Andrew Graham 476812.60%
Gayla MacIntosh 18774.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 4541.38%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (94.99% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (5.01% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/08/21 A.S.
Yeah, '15 was more of an ‘oops’ moment for the federal Cons. Though even in defeat, it's interesting how Ludwig still managed a majority in all 5 polls in her hometown St. Andrews cluster (incl. 70% in the central poll)
17/08/21 R.O.
John Williamson was first elected in 2011 , somehow the riding went liberal in 2015 much like it did in 1993 although its mostly been a conservative riding over the years and think its going to stay that way.
01/08/21 Sam
The 24 point gap is going to be too big for the Liberals to close, I think. The 2015 result was just a lucky win for Karen Ludwig - it's back to it's safe Conservative as no drop in the Green vote is going to transfer enough votes to the Liberals.
28/07/21 Stevo
NBSW had its once-a-generation Liberal win in 2015 and then swiftly back to normal. Count on another Liberal win here some time in the 2040s.
06/06/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription de tradition conservatrice du sud-ouest du Nouveau-Brunswick. Sera sans doute l'une des dernières à tomber en cas de raz-de-marée libéral.

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