Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-07 23:08:43

Constituency Profile


Carrier, Lorilee

Dunn, Richard

Landry, Serge

Petitpas Taylor, Ginette

Smith, Darlene


Ginette Petitpas Taylor

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



157.02 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Ginette Petitpas Taylor ** 2226143.00%
Sylvie Godin-Charest 1220023.50%
Claire Kelly 928717.90%
Luke MacLaren 616411.90%
Stephen Driver 12582.40%
Brad MacDonald 3730.70%
Rhys Williams 2850.50%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Ginette Petitpas Taylor 3005457.80%
Robert Goguen ** 1116821.50%
Luc LeBlanc 842016.20%
Luc Melanson 23994.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

14/09/21 MUBS
While I still think that GPT will win for the liberals, it may be much closer than 2019. I live on the edge of this riding in Fundy-Royal (two streets away) and have noticed that the lawn signs in Moncton/Riverview/Dieppe have evened up with her and Darlene Smith. Even two friends that are die-hard libs and always had signs out front do not have them this year. They will never vote cons but are not happy with Trudeau so how many of these people stay home election day.
06/09/21 Bob G
This riding is no longer a sure thing for incumbent and former cabinet minister Ginette Pettipas-Taylor
The left vote is splitting and as it relates to her campaign, Pettipas-Taylor has been both literally and figuratively nowhere to be seen.
19/08/21 A.S.
Yeah, people like Richard Dunn are a real artifact of the pre-implosion federal Greens, when they had a David Coon-esque seriousness in spirit in its NB bids. But all it would've done, and all it still does, is split the opposition tableau on GPT's behalf.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
Ginette Petitpas Taylor est bien en vue dans l'actuel gouvernement. Elle a peu de risque de perdre ses prochaines élections dans ce coin de pays de tradition libérale.
06/08/21 J.F. Breton
Richard Dunn, qui possède une intéressante expérience à la FCEI, puis à la ville de Moncton en développement économique, a annoncé qu'il se présente pour les Verts. Dommage que les luttes intestines aient mené à une défection, puis à une perte évidente de crédibilité du Parti Vert et de sa cheffe Paul. La lutte aurait été intéressante ici. Je maintiens ma prévision initiale: victoire libérale.
06/08/21 Branden
With Ginette Petitpas Taylor running again and the Liberals maintaining (or slightly improving on) their 2019 numbers in the Maritime provinces, I don't see this riding being particularly close.
06/08/21 Lolitha
Fairly safe riding and a cabinet minister for MP, the Liberals should be considered the favorite to win here.

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