Election Prediction Project

Miramichi-Grand Lake
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 15:01:13

Constituency Profile


Deitch, Patty

Harris, Lisa

Nowlan, Ron

Potter, Bruce

Stewart, Jake


Pat Finnigan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



16867.04 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Pat Finnigan ** 1272236.80%
Peggy McLean 1235235.70%
Patty Deitch 391411.30%
Eileen Clancy Teslenko 28758.30%
Ron Nowlan 11793.40%
Allison MacKenzie 11603.40%
Mathew Grant Lawson 3961.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Pat Finnigan 1720247.30%
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon ** 1247634.30%
Patrick Colford 558815.40%
Matthew Ian Clark 10983.00%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 400.12%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (82.59% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (9.74% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (6.27% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.4% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

15/09/21 J.F. Breton
S'il y a une circonscription qui pourrait changer de main au Nouveau-Brunswick et passer aux Conservateurs, c'est bien ici. Ce devrait گtre la seule d'ailleurs ˆ changer d'allژgeance. Le candidat apparait solide et il peut capitaliser sur de bons rژsultats dans les campagnes antژrieures.
10/09/21 Philly D.
While part of the riding is PANB provincially, the Conservative candidate should not cause offence to PPC/CPC fence-sitters. Therefore any PPC rise should be marginal and Jake Stewart should win by 1300 votes or so.
04/09/21 Murphy
Jake Stewart is a popular local MLA who should defeat another local MLA Lisa Harris given the current polling and Liberals trajectory.
25/08/21 C B
My first predicted seat change. This will be the first Atlantic seat to flip Conservative, barring some large campaign shift. If the dynamics stay the same, the Conservatives should have no difficulty here. No incumbent, very close race last time, Conservative provincial MLA. Low hanging fruit. Now, if we see some sort of PPC rise, that would change things altogether. That could be said of anywhere in the country. For now, CON gain.
19/08/21 A.S.
A pretty severely divided riding: coastal Acadiana favours the Libs, the interior favours the Cons. And I did speculate last time on the effect PPC would have, given how a lot of this is CoR/PANB country--and as it so happened, the riding turned in the strongest PPC performance in the province, w/a share 3 times the margin btw/the Libs and CPC. (Well, still pretty remote; but it's PPC.) So we've got a pretty vivid case of Team Bernier having likely impeded a CPC pickup in '19--and a pretty strong likelihood of it happening again...
18/08/21 Outside Inside
It's a funny thing. The incumbent Pat Finnigan may be retiring after two elections, but both Lisa Harris and Jake Stewart likely have far more robust 'incumbent' credentials than the low-profile Finnigan, having notched four election victories each in their respective provincial ridings, and each being among the most outspoken personalities in their respective caucuses.
This will be a battle, but this time around, the local CPC isn't plagued by infighting, and Stewart won't have to fend off a spoiler challenge from a disgruntled ex-candidate who siphoned off just enough CPC votes to ensure the Liberals were re-elected here last time. National numbers have reverted back to a horse race with the election call, and though I'd currently mark this as TCTC, it's probably the CPC's best pickup opportunity in Atlantic Canada.
17/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as Patrick Finnigan has retired although he hadn’t really been mp for that long only elected in 2015 . now a race between 2 local provincial mla’s , Jake Stewart for conservatives and Lisa Harris liberal .
01/08/21 Sam
Not really a surprise that Pat Finnigan is retiring but it's created a race with two MLAs. Tossup between the Liberals and Conservatives at this point, but it's the most likely gain for the Tories in Atlantic Canada.
14/06/21 J.F. Breton
Information complémentaire: selon Polling Canada, Pat Finnigan ne se représenterait pas, ce qui renforce l'idée d'une lutte intéressante ici. TCTC
06/06/21 J.F. Breton
Lutte intéressante à prévoir dans cette circonscription aux composantes acadiennes et loyalistes. Le redécoupage de 2015 a rendu le gain libéral plus incertain.

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