Election Prediction Project

Fundy Royal
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-09 23:54:41

Constituency Profile


Dykeman, Whitney

Floyd, Josh

Moore, Rob

Thompson, Tim

Wheeler, Wayne


Rob Moore

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



7230.86 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Rob Moore 2238946.00%
Alaina Lockhart ** 1243325.60%
Tim Thompson 727515.00%
James Tolan 48049.90%
Rudy Neumayer 12492.60%
David Raymond Amos 2950.60%
John Evans 2010.40%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Alaina Lockhart 1913640.90%
Rob Moore ** 1736137.10%
Jennifer McKenzie 820417.50%
Stephanie Coburn 18233.90%
David Raymond Amos 2960.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 60.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Fundy Royal
   (92.48% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3.78% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Saint John
   (3.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (0.39% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

25/08/21 R.O.
Rob Moore was first elected in 2004 in this rural New Brunswick riding which has a long conservative history. Other than 93 and 2015 which were liberal sweeps out east. Likely to stay conservative.
19/08/21 A.S.
Of the 3 shouldn't-have-switched-so-bounced-back Con seats in NB, this one was actually technically the ‘weakest’--but still an over 20-point margin; blame suburban Moncton & Saint John for any token softness at that end. Or if there *is* another '93/'15-style ‘bump’, perhaps with an assist from hiving-off of the Con fringe to the PPC realm, it's those 'burbs where Liberal stability along the lines of good old fashioned Tory stability is likeliest to be sought. (But one indicator of *something*: aside from urban polls in Riverview/Hampton/Quispamsis, the only Liberal polls were the Fundy Park-and-east trio from Alma to Riverside-Albert. The most ‘touristic’ part of the riding, IOW.)
04/08/21 Laurence Putnam
Rob Moore is essentially the senior Tory from the Atlantic and Fundy-Royal has gone Tory in every election back to '97 with the exceptions of 2004 and 2015. Even with a lacklustre national campaign, the Tories can reasonably rely on Fundy-Royal.
06/06/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription de tradition conservatrice du sud-ouest du Nouveau-Brunswick. Sera sans doute l'une des dernières à tomber en cas de raz-de-marée libéral.

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