Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-18 19:04:47

Constituency Profile


Atwin, Jenica

Johnson, Andrea

Kirby, Brandon

O'Byrne, Nicole

Oldenburg, Shawn

Patterson, June

Smith, Jen


Jenica Atwin

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1502.52 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jenica Atwin 1664033.70%
Andrea Johnson 1501130.40%
Matt DeCourcey ** 1354427.40%
Mackenzie Thomason 29466.00%
Jason Paull 7761.60%
Lesley Thomas 2860.60%
Brandon Kirby 1260.30%
Jacob Patterson 800.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Matt DeCourcey 2301649.30%
Keith Ashfield ** 1328028.40%
Mary Lou Babineau 580412.40%
Sharon Scott-Levesque 46229.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 2140.55%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (99.47% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   New Brunswick Southwest
   (0.53% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Branden
Barring any last minute breaking stories or polling shifts, i think Atwin will carry this riding by a decent margin. She'll likely inherit all of the Liberal support, and a decent chunk of the 2019 Green vote as well.
13/09/21 Mid-Islander
I don't think this one's that tough of a call, actually. I would imagine that Atwin will probably inheret what DeCourcey got in 2019 that doesn't turn blue as well as a good chunk of her old Green votes, which should be more than enough to put her over the edge. Perhaps I'm underestimating both the Conservatives' polling averages in New Brunswick and Nicole O'Byrne (who I'm not really familiar with), but right now I'm not under the impression that those factors are enough to unseat Atwin.
09/09/21 Jake H.
This one seems impossible to call, and it will be a very interesting ‘must watch’ riding on election day.
Atwin won previously as a Green Party candidate and her crossing the floor to the Liberals was a pretty shocking move.
So... were people voting for HER or the GREENS? How many of those votes will she keep? How many votes will she gain now that she is more known as a commodity? How many votes will she lose because some people see her crossing the floor as opportunistic? Given the Green Party's trend down, how many of their 2019 votes will they be able to retain in 2021, against their own former candidate? How many votes will Atwin/The Liberals lose to the rising ‘anti-Trudeau’ sentiment?
This is one of those ridings that will come down to the wire, with a good chance the Conservatives could take this seat back.
TCTC right now.
09/09/21 Jake H.
This one seems impossible to call, and it will be a very interesting ‘must watch’ riding on election day.
Atwin won previously as a Green Party candidate and her crossing the floor to the Liberals was a pretty shocking move.
So... were people voting for HER or the GREENS? How many of those votes will she keep? How many votes will she gain now that she is more known as a commodity? How many votes will she lose because some people see her crossing the floor as opportunistic? Given the Green Party's trend down, how many of their 2019 votes will they be able to retain in 2021, against their own former candidate? How many votes will Atwin/The Liberals lose to the rising ‘anti-Trudeau’ sentiment?
This is one of those ridings that will come down to the wire, with a good chance the Conservatives could take this seat back.
TCTC right now.
08/09/21 Traveller
Atwin seems to think representing Hamas is more important than representing Fredericton. There were no notable constituency contributions last term. She's not likely to get re-elected.
07/09/21 GritBusters
I don't see Atwin losing here: the NDP is not strong in this riding, and the Green vote will inevitably collapse here due to both local and national struggles.
Let's just hope that the corrupt Liberal insider clique hasn't undermined Atwin's passion for justice in Palestine.
06/09/21 R.O.
Jenica Atwin was one of the surprises of the 2019 election getting elected in eastern Canada as a green candidate federally. But she eventually switched parties and now a liberal so will never run for re election as a green mp. Andrea Johnson is back as the conservative candidate after a close run last election, the riding had been cpc as recently as 2008-11 elections. Nicole o’bryne is the new green candidate although faces long odds to maintain the seat as green and seems doubtful Annamie Paul will campaign in the riding as she’s yet to leave Toronto this election.
06/09/21 A. Voter
The PPC candidate has been disqualified, that might give it to the Conservatives.
04/09/21 George Knox
Fredericton riding poll has Liberals leading by 10 over conservatives.
What this says to me most is that the greens appear to be hurting.
03/09/21 Laurence Putnam
Regardless of party, I think everyone loves to see the poetic justice of a turncoat being dumped by the voters after an opportunistic move.
However, that desire doesn't always match up to reality. Voters punished Angela Vautour's betrayal, but they richly rewarded Scott Brison, John Herron and Bill Casey.
I suspect given the riding's strong Liberal leanings in the past 30 years that Atwin has a very good chance of retaining the seat. Green Party support has cratered and I think its tough to believe anything other than most of those Green votes following Atwin to the Liberal camp.
01/09/21 Steve
There is a lot to consider here. In 2019, Jenica Atwin/the Green Party won in part because of David Coon's popularity, and the fact Fredericton had two insane floods in 2018 and 2019. But what needs to be asked is why did the Greens take this riding? Was it David Coon's help? Was it the floods? Or was it a vote for Jenica?
Then, out of nowhere, Jenica flips to the Liberals. Like... what?! This seems to left everyone confused, asking why did she do this? The people of Fredericton didn't send a Liberal to Ottawa, they sent a Green!
People till remember Andrea Johnson from when she ran in 2019. She almost won in 2019, and I think she has a decent shot at winning this time, given the Liberal/Green vote split could be more interesting this time around.
31/08/21 Smerdlin Drodley
Weirdest riding in Canada. More wild card factors:
- Nicole O'Byrne is ‘open to nuclear’ which is wildly at odds with GPC and GP of NB policy. This makes her look like a stooge of Annamie Paul who just discards official policy on a whim. O'Byrne had no standing with indigenous communities which is the keystone of Green support in NB since the fracking fight again at SWN where NDP committed suicide in the province and alienated anti Irving voters.
- only 54% of Green supporters (vs 75-80% for all others) say they intend to vote in this election.
- Atwin was re educated by Zionists like Ya'ara Sacks and Irwin Cotler and is no longer viewed as a voice for indigenous peoples abroad. This won't affect her core support which should move with her, but it means human rights activists aren't campaigning for her.
- election timing cost Rankin and may well cost Trudeau. Liberal vote won't be where polls had it in early August.
- PPC candidate will draw racist, reactionary and covidiot freedum voters away from OTooliban. Could be very many of them.
So for these reasons it's not going to be callable at all.
25/08/21 C B
I love the complex races that really make you think! Very interesting dynamics at play here in Fredericton. The 2019 was very interesting. Before then, my assessment of the riding was that it was a fairly decent Atlantic bellwether ala Peterborough. Clearly the Greens are not fairing as prominently thus far this campaign. So was 2019 a one-off for the Greens? My gut seems to think so. Bottom line: if the Liberals drop in Atlantic Canada any more, this one will go Conservative.
23/08/21 A. Voter
It looks like the Liberal/NDP/Green split will allow the Conservatives to take this riding.
19/08/21 A.S.
I'm sure the ‘no way will be on their minds’ comment referred to voters at large, so let's not split hairs over an issue that's peripheral to Fredericton. But I also wouldn't be *too* dismissive of the Conservative (including the evangelical) element in a town that went heavily for CoR populism in '91, was above Maritime par for Reform/Alliance, and presently includes a good deal of Kris Austin's PANB home base. Still, Red Tory/Liberal/Green carries that present-day cast of Frederictonian safe-default, so Atwin's in a sweet zone...
18/08/21 Outside Inside
This one is hard to read. On its face, it seems Jenica Atwin should be able to take enough Greens to the Liberal fold with her to pull it off. The Greens did particularly well among the not-insignificantly-sized Indigenous population of this riding last time, likely owing a combination of Atwin's work in First Nations education and her family ties to popular Wolostoq Indigenous leaders, and a chunk of this vote will probably return to its historical support for the Liberals this time.
However, Liberal voters in this riding are a strange mix. You also have your culturally-leftish university professors, students, and creative class types who would be receptive to a Green-turned-Liberal, but Nicole O'Byrne, a culturally-leftish professor herself, seems tailor-made to go after some of that vote.
Importantly, you also have your no-drama white collar professionals of the kind who both stuck with DeCourcey in significant numbers in 2019 and who were also willing to vote Conservative in droves back in 2011 (and did so provincially in 2020). These voters will be key. If controversy continues to find Jenica Atwin, enough of them could be turned off to result in an edge for the inoffensive, business-oriented CPC candidate Andrea Johnson.
At this moment, edge to the Liberals, but far from secured.
15/08/21 QuebecCityOliver
Dr Bear is wrong - ‘in no way will be on their minds when they cast their ballot’ - he needs to add ‘except for certain ridings in Montreal and Toronto.’
Also surely, Scott Brison is the best example of a defector winning for another party - a Maritimer, too.
Also, Stevo, 220 according to the 2016 Census - 785 in the province. Admittedly as close to zero as makes no difference but not zero.
14/08/21 B.O.
Jenica Atwin has been sitting as a Liberal MP since June so I recommend changing the party logo for the incumbent here and on the Atlantic Canada page to Liberal. For the riding in the coming election, I am withholding a prediction because we don't know to what extent the Green vote will go down and if the Conservative vote will stay the same, go up, or go down. Atwin may be able to win as a Liberal but it is not a certainty.
10/08/21 Dr Bear
When I saw some of the comments about Ms Atwin’s ‘impending defeat’ because of ‘anti Israel’ rhetoric and/or her subsequent floor crossing, I gave a little eye roll. While most Canadians have an opinion about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict it in no way will be on their minds when they cast their ballot (see Stevo’s posting, he hit the nail on the head!). Regarding floor crossing MPs not doing well in subsequent elections; here are some MPs who did defect from one party and then go on to win their seat for their new party: Leona Alleslev, Belinda Stronach, David Kilgour, Keith Martin, David Price, Diane St Jacques, Andre Harvey. I can go on, but you get the picture. It seems that MPs that cross the floor tend to get re-elected or don’t run in the subsequent election (someone could do a survey and find out east the ratio is).
Anyways, the point being that Ms Atwin stands a very good chance at reelection. At the moment the wind is definitely in the Liberal’s sails. The main challenger here will be the Conservatives, who stand a great chance at winning. Problem is, they have no momentum at all. If they can find a strong candidate, with moderate, local appeal then they could win this seat. As for the Greens, they are a spent force for the moment. It takes A LONG time to get over the amount of bad press they have received in recent months. In a general election, voters are looking for leadership and that is absolutely not what we are seeing from the Greens. They are currently looking like an amateurish, high school debate club hurling insults at one another. There won’t be any new voters joining their ranks. Rather, many of the 2015 Liberals who became 2019 Greens will return to the Liberals or stay home. In both of those cases the Liberals win this seat.
02/08/21 prognosticator15
When one party, Green becomes a pale imitation of the other, turncoat status does not really matter, and the vote tends to align. Radical Greens will not be enough to come close to that coalition. Also, there is no single issue that makes all the Green-Liberal voters mad at the Liberals - business closures are opposed by those who vote cons anyway, there is no reason for the the left to vote against a friend in power. I see little that makes cons vote stronger here than in 2019. The incumbent would have to get into a much bigger controversy than Israel views to get defeated her.
28/07/21 Stevo
I don't see how the MP's views on Israel can possibly impact the race in Fredericton - a city with no Jews and few evangelicals. Assuming there is residual strength for the Green Party that will not follow the MP to the Liberals, it makes this seat an interesting target for the Conservatives to play the vote split and come up the middle.
19/07/21 JB
If the Green candidate here (the new one) can muster 12k votest and make it a 3 way race, then the Conservatives win. Liberals will need to retain past support and pick up the center Green votes which is no easy task.
18/07/21 Libby Burgundy
Just commenting to say I find it hilarious that people expect this election to swing on Israel, of all things. This strikes me less as analysis and more as fanfic.
22/06/21 MUBS
Atwin has angered a lot of the older people in this riding with her anti-Israeli stance, she will still get the young vote but will allow this to be a pick up for the cons that have always had a good showing here.
15/06/21 Not Non-Partisan
Jenica sealed her fate in the short walk across the aisle. And subsequently looked like a hypocrite on Israel. The pool of Liberals and defecting Greens will not be enough to beat the Tories.
15/06/21 seasaw
I am predicting a Conservative win here, because the Liberal candidate and MP is a turncoat, and historically turncoats haven't done very well in the past. You could argue that by mentioning Scott Bryson, but Bryson was never a Conservative he was a Progressive Conservative who didn't like the idea of united right, and also Jenica Atwin is certainly no Scott Bryson. That should be enough to put the riding in the blue column
13/06/21 Marco Ricci
Jenica Atwin's decision to cross the floor from the Greens to the Liberals probably makes this riding a Liberal vs. Conservative race. The Liberals can win the riding back with Atwin if they can coalesce the Liberal vote with some of the Green vote, but if this does not work, the Conservatives will have a shot at the riding.
12/06/21 Libby Burgundy
Jenica Atwin doesn't much like talking about why she left the Greens. Certainly, she's happy to discuss her future with the Liberals, but the past? Not so much.
This is because her reasons for defecting are kind of hard to square: the version of events filtering out through spokespeople is that she's had several conflicts with new Green leader Annamie Paul, but if it's the case that she's left the Greens because she found the leadership overbearing and stifling, she's going to be in for a rude awakening as a Liberal backbencher. Doesn't hold up.
Really, the only version of events which makes a lick of sense is that Atwin knows what side her bread's buttered on. By now, it's obvious that this Fredericton seat wasn't a Green beachhead so much as a toehold, and Annamie Paul's political and geographic focus is elsewhere.
In general, Atlantic Greens (provincial and federal) win by running on an ecumenical we-do-politics-different message, rather than on earnest ideological positions. Elizabeth May's approach was highly compatible with this local reality; Annamie Paul, not so much.
And if Atwin felt that Paul's leadership was going to leave her exposed... well, the savvy move is to defect to the Liberals. Atwin's personal brand plus the existing Liberal vote should be more than enough to carry this seat in the face of anything but a Conservative surge. (Certainly, nobody expects the Greens to have a shot without her.)
The Liberals get an Indigenous woman who can be trotted out as an argument against the necessity of the Green Party, and she gets access to power of a type she could never have attained as a Green MP. It may be slightly careerist, but heaven forbid a bright 34-year-old have political ambitions beyond being a one-term fifth-party backbencher.
12/06/21 J.F. Breton
Jenica Atwin est passée chez les Libéraux. ةnorme perte pour les Verts qui reculent de 10 ans avec cette défection. Il était déjà difficile d'imaginer une réélection d'Atwin avec les Verts. Son passage au PLC lui donne une énorme avance vers la victoire.
10/06/21 David
Prior to today I would have said that this was going to be a tight race that Jenica Atwin would be slightly favoured in. She has done well in her first term as MP, proving herself effective, even winning MacLean's rising star award among MP's.
With her announcement that she would be joining the Liberals, I'd move her from a slight favourite to the clear favourite.
10/06/21 ME
The former Green MP crossed the floor to become a Liberal MP
26/05/21 J.F. Breton
Jenica Atwin pourra-t-elle récidiver et l'emporter pour les Verts dans Fredericton? Je le souhaite ardemment. Il ne fait pas de doute que les Verts y mettront toutes les ressources nécessaires, mais les Libéraux et Conservateurs y verront l'occasion de faire un gain pour décrocher une majorité. Ce sera une lutte difficile.

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