Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-03 11:18:22

Constituency Profile


Cormier, Serge

Doiron, Richer

Hébert, Mélissa

Johns, Rachel

Langford, Kenneth Edward

Lanteigne, Jean-Paul


Serge Cormier

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



5063.17 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Serge Cormier ** 2654755.10%
Martine Savoie 1035221.50%
Daniel Thériault 696714.50%
Robert Kryszko 42778.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Serge Cormier 2584550.70%
Jason Godin 2007939.40%
Riba Girouard-Riordon 38527.60%
Dominique Breau 11872.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (98.05% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (1.95% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

22/08/21 Outside Inside
This riding is fool's gold for the NDP. The party has absolutely cratered organizationally in the province, so I guess this might be as good a place as any for the leader to visit in order to claw back a face-saving second place finish, and then build from there next time... but short of some kind of rogue-wave orange crush repeat, this riding stays Liberal in 2021.
21/08/21 Physastr Master
Well I was very, very, embarrassingly wrong about this riding last election. The NDP got so badly obliterated in this most friendly of ridings in 2019 that even a massive surge in the Atlantic couldn't fix it. The NB NDP is dead, and I can't see the federal party putting significant energy into the province with much more fertile ground next door in Nova Scotia with much higher possible returns.
19/08/21 A.S.
Why should Jagmeet campaigning here be a surprise? Remember that his party's a lot less strapped for resources and facing-oblivion than it was in '19, and much more prepared for a national campaign (and this really was more of a *national* campaign appearance)--and they know that they dropped the NB ball in '19 (remember the fake-news story about all those prospective Dipper candidates jumping to the Greens?), and are working to fix it. Otherwise, you might as well question why federal leaders before the Orange Crush bothered to campaign in Quebec. Plus, while Yvon Godin might be long behind us now, this remained the party's best NB seat in '19 and one of only 2 where they finished ahead of the Greens, there's still *a* legacy to validly riff of here. Notice, though, that it doesn't mean I *wouldn't’ presently offer a sensible-shoes Liberal prediction--even Godin knew a lot of his vote was a Lib proxy...
19/08/21 R.O.
Hard to believe this riding used to have an ndp incumbent as its essentially a safe liberal riding in francophone New Brunswick with a long liberal tradition. Serge Cormier first elected in 2015 and no sign anyone could unseat him this year.
18/08/21 Marco Ricci
Although the NDP performed poorly here in 2019, there may be a reason why Singh and the NDP sense an opportunity to make up some ground here. The election has started, but Liberal MP Serge Cormier has not been re-nominated to run again yet. Cormier increased his winning margin in 2019, but had some health problems which reduced his time on the campaign trail. It is possible that those health problems are why he has not yet decided whether to run again. Therefore, although this riding is likely to remain Liberal, it could be a narrower win if Cormier is unable to run again.
14/08/21 Sam
Jagmeet Singh coming to campaign here is a surprise given how little attention the riding apparently got in 2019. SIngh was never the best fit for this riding, and without the legacy of Yvon Godin, it's too late for him to be visiting now. Indeed, the NDP's strength when Godin was the MP masked how favourable this area could be for the Liberals - that's something we can glean from the provincial elections.
Safe Liberal for me.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
Depuis le départ d'Yvon Godin, la circonscription est retombée fortement dans le giron libéral. Même le candidat néo-démocrate aux dernières élections, qui était présenté comme une vedette, a mordu la poussière. Victoire libérale.

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