Election Prediction Project

West Nova
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-16 01:08:50

Constituency Profile


Burbidge, Cheryl

Chamberlain, Alxys

d'Entremont, Chris

Spidle, Scott


Chris d'Entremont

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8885.44 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Chris d'Entremont 1839039.30%
Jason Deveau 1702536.40%
Judy N Green 593912.70%
Matthew Dubois 501010.70%
Gloria Jane Cook 4340.90%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Colin Fraser 2877563.00%
Arnold LeBlanc 1191626.10%
Greg Foster 30846.80%
Clark Walton 19044.20%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   West Nova
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

18/09/21 Drew613
It might be a bit premature to call this one for the Cons. A new Mainstreet riding poll shows the Libs with a 4 point lead. This is within the poll's MoE, so TCTC might be something to consider even if election day is 3 away.
13/09/21 Sam
I'm not sure quite how much the fisheries issues would swing things to the CPC (I'd imagine less of an effect here than in SS-St. M). The other local dynamic is the Liberals repeating their failure to get a candidate that can put up a strong challenge d'Entremont, who was a big part of the 2019 victory.
Otherwise, the Liberals are down in the Maritimes a bit, the CPC are up a bit, the CPC should hold onto this and I expect they will with a much increased margin.
03/09/21 na
With CPC up, Liberals down in Atlantic Canada, hard to believe this one would flip back to the Liberals, as close as it was last time.
03/09/21 bluenoser
Very safe seat for the CPC, especially with the debacle surrounding the fisheries.
31/08/21 Smerdlin Drodley
This ought to be TCTC until theres a riding poll showing the Green support.
Judy N Green was barred from running by the Annamie Paul faction (Zionist) run by Noah Zatzman. So nothing like her 12.7% in 2019 is going to be seen this time.
Yes the reactionary fishers like Chris D'Entremont for his clearly contemptous lies about the Supreme Court ruling and his refusal as NS fisheries minister to deal with Marshall at all. However his mouthing off has had disastrous real world results including getting ‘conflict lobster’ banned from some US restaurants.
If D'Entremont actually became the Minister he would lose so badly at the Supreme Court that no non native fisher in this district would ever fish again. They'd be selling their boats to Mike Sack for pennies on the doar after the Court tossed ‘moderate livelihood’ as a failure. Just as they did for ‘civil unions’ & ‘domestic partnership’ when the ‘defense of marriage’ crowd kept discriminating.
The question you have to ask is, just how stupid are these fishermen? Do they really think Cons will do better at the Supreme Court than Liberals? With a racist ignoring the Supreme Court, openly defying it, as the area MP? Guess we will see.
I personally would put this TCTC just because I have seen leaders in the fishery union warn loudly that contempt of the Supreme Court is an insane non strategy sure to grant inshore rights to Mikmaq in preference to the present license holders.
28/08/21 Marco Ricci
I agree with the comments below that this riding is leaning Conservative. The Liberals had an opening here to win the riding back this year but seem to have fumbled the opportunity. They took ages to get a candidate in place and then chose a provincial Liberal staffer. They needed a better-known name if they want to beat Chris d'Entremont. This is likely a Conservative hold, unless Liberal numbers go back up in the Atlantic region.
25/08/21 C B
I don’t see the Conservatives losing any of their incumbents in Atlantic Canada.
21/08/21 Murphy
This riding has a large amount of lobster fishermen, almost all of whom are angry and dissatisfied with the Liberals handling of the moderate livelihood debacle. Chris d'Entremont is also personally popular which enabled him to win in 2019. The Liberal candidate is an unknown who was an assistant for MLA Leo Glavine. Barring a complete Conservative collapse, d'Entremont should be re-elected.
19/08/21 A.S.
Like Egmont in PEI, the heart of the provincial Acadian community (and much as in New Brunswick, Acadianism has a way of generating heavy-duty-Conservative counter-Acadianism). And like Egmont, it took a federal retirement and a provincial Con taking advantage of a open-seat circumstance to turn it into NS's sole CPC seat--and there *is* a reason why this, and not the identically-positioned Cape Breton seats, made that flip; it's just more ‘natural territory’. Albeit more in a historical swing-riding way than in an ancestral-Tory Cumberland-Colchester way--maybe they just felt that hereditary urge to flip once again, much as they did over the 70s/80s/90s. And maybe they'll do it again--after all, D'Entremont's Yarmouth County isn't the whole riding...
19/08/21 R.O.
Chris D Entremont is a first term mp elected in 2019 when this riding had no incumbent although he had been a long time provincial mla for this area so well known by now. Riding has a history of being a swing riding between liberals and conservatives but I think he’s likely to hold this one.
23/06/21 Stevo
This was a surprise win for the Conservatives in 2019 (though not as surprising as the very close Cape Breton seats) and fairly low hanging fruit for the Liberals to take back if current polling trends persist.
08/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Liberals are polling at around 50% in Atlantic Canada right now so this is a riding they have an opportunity to win back. However, the Liberals don't seem to have nominated a candidate here yet so they may be off to a slow start.

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