Election Prediction Project

South Shore-St. Margarets
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-19 14:54:31

Constituency Profile


Dorey, Olivia

Jordan, Bernadette

Perkins, Rick

Trappenberg, Thomas


Bernadette Jordan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



8474.95 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bernadette Jordan ** 2188641.70%
Rick Perkins 1474428.10%
Jessika Hepburn 836115.90%
Thomas Trappenberg 607011.60%
Robert Monk 6671.30%
Steven Foster 3760.70%
Shawn McMahon 1650.30%
Jason Matthews 1250.20%
Kevin Schulthies 1240.20%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bernadette Jordan 3004556.90%
Richard Clark 1190522.60%
Alex Godbold 888316.80%
Richard Biggar 15342.90%
Trevor Bruhm 2570.50%
Ryan Barry 1510.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   South Shore-St. Margaret's
   (88.86% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Halifax West
   (11.14% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Smerdlin Drodley
Answering C B - I know of the PPC surge in Ontario and Maverick in Alberta. This will have nowhere near the same effect in Atlantic Canada. This region regularly gets hit by hurricanes and anyone with an education has been to Europe, it's closer than Alberta. The coasts (Atlantic, Vancouver Island, Lower BC mainland) have no tolerance for climate denialists, which is why you will never see a CPC or PPC surge in either. People are angrier at Trudeau for buying TMX pipeline and leaving us no influence in carbon tariff negotiations with the EU. We don't want tariffs imposed on us due to Alberta & Saskatchewan emissions & we sure don't want their covid variants.
So you'll find more Maverick than PPC support here. Most of us would rather Alberta leave first so Quebec and Ontario stay with us, and the denialists can get nuked by their bio and methane victims. We ban fracking here, that should tell you a lot.
08/09/21 R.O.
Bernadette Jordan was first elected in 2015 and re elected in 2019. Prior to that the riding was held by Gerald Keddy and had a lot of conservative/pc history going back decades so not a naturally liberal riding, believe the only other election it had ever been liberal was 93 . Rick Perkins was the cpc candidate last election as well and placed a strong second. Polls show the cpc vote share increasing in atlantic Canada especially in Nova Scotia. but will hold off on a solid prediction here
03/09/21 Thomas K
I wouldn't count on NDP/Green voters voting for Bernadette Jordan. The self-righteous ‘strategic voting’ Liberal narrative is pretty far-fetched with the current political dynamic.
03/09/21 C B
Smerdlin - Thank you for what appears to be a local perspective and opinion. It helped me understand the NS dynamics in the most previous provincial election. My question to you is this: Your manner of presenting voters disdain for Ford, O’Toole, Kenney, etc., leads me to ask if you think voters may be itching to park their votes elsewhere? There is a huge groundswell bubbling up here in southern Ontario for the PPC. The polls and media aren’t covering or catching it. I’m wondering if this is a nationwide effect? And how large is it? What are your thoughts on the PPC from a Nova Scotian perspective?
03/09/21 JH
This one might be the upset of the night in Atlantic Canada. Bernadette Jordan is largely despised/seen as incompetent for how she has handled the native fishery situation (she literally claimed she never read the Marshall decision!), so I think she will be hard targeted, and the area was traditionally Conservative pre-2015. NS would be much better with Jordan gone and a more competent cabinet minister like Fraser, Fisher, etc.
03/09/21 bluenoser
Lots of residual anger with the Trudeau government here, coupled with Jordan's terrible handling of fisheries issues make this seat a very strong possibility for a Conservative pick up. All provincial ridings went PC in the last election (quite convincingly as well).
31/08/21 Smerdlin Drodley
The west (Barrington) area is very solidly Con, didn't see a single Liberal sign on Cape Sable Island or the Passage last weekend. Support for Jordan is definitely muted and there is nearly no visible NDP or Green presence anywhere southwest of Bridgewater.
Rick Perkins is back but he wasn't an attractive or exciting candidate before, though better than the insult that was Clark. Few seem to promote him as a person, it's a 'get Trudeau out' thing.
Provincial ridings all going PC is not that much of a factor, PC Keddy was re elected here as those same ridings went Liberal and NDP. NDP & Green stalwarts are realizing they must swap or just vote for Bernadette, after provincial disaster.
During provincial campaign each of these quite strong provincial PC candidates campaigned on their own merits and was careful NOT to endorse Ford, Kenney or OToole. I personally think it's a scam but voters took them at their word that they aren't the OTooliban. So we will see.
26/08/21 Voter123
Bernadette Jordan is going to lose this riding, given her performance as Fisheries Minister. We could be looking at a 1997-type Liberal wipe-out.
25/08/21 C B
This riding is winnable for all 3 major parties. The NDP does best with a leader from Atlantic Canada, unsurprisingly, but they do have history here. 2015 was a return to 1993 for the Liberals in Atlantic Canada. The difference being that they seem to have only been able to hold on to the massive majorities for one election. We are seeing conflicting polls out East. Some suggest the Liberals are still in control out east, while others indicate some movement to the Conservatives. This is definitely a winnable riding for them. They held it for a long time with Gerald Keddy I believe. The NDP just have to be strong enough to split the vote. This will be between the Cons and Libs, and I have to wonder if the provincial election was a precursor?
23/08/21 Murphy
My comments for West Nova also stand for this riding, albeit less so. Many lobster fishermen in the region are angry with Jordan's handling of the moderate livelihood indigenous fishery. This certainly has some traction along the South Shore, along with the recent provincial election results which heavily favoured the PCs. Definitely TCTC for now.
20/08/21 Mr. Dave
Time to re-think a Liberal win here. When the provincial Liberals got hammered by the Conservatives in the recent provincial election, all five of the provincial ridings within SOUTH SHORE went Conservative. I'd change this one to T.C.T.C. for the time being.
19/08/21 A.S.
Cabinet didn't give Bernadette Jordan as bold a boost as I was allowing for--still, she had a solid enough margin, more sober than in '15 but what can you do (the far-W Cons out Barrington way threatened to drag things in a West Nova direction, but the Greater Halifax elements brought things back to Liberal earth). Clearly, the ‘Keddy Liberals’ still rule the roost--momentarily, at least...
09/07/21 Lolitha
As a place to start, 99% plus Liberal likelihood on both 338 and Leantossup.

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