Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-08-06 01:03:48

Constituency Profile


Chisholm, Jenna

Conrad, Angela

Edmonds, Anthony

Gosse, Earl

Samson, Darrell


Darrell Samson

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



644.93 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Darrell Samson ** 1992540.20%
Matt Stickland 1186023.90%
Kevin Copley 1121122.60%
Anthony Edmonds 572511.60%
Sybil Hogg 8161.60%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Darrell Samson 2316148.00%
Peter Stoffer ** 1661334.40%
Robert Thomas Strickland 718614.90%
Mike Montgomery 13412.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 30.01%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (99.65% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (0.35% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/09/21 JH
This seat was always a Stoffer seat and not an NDP seat, and I don't see there being any reasonable chance of it flipping NDP. The riding is predominantly rural, and the NDP won 0 seats that compose this riding in the provincial election, so it stretches belief to think this will be anything but Liberal.
19/08/21 A.S.
I anticipated, in '19, a post-Stoffer settling back into a traditional Lib/Con binary; yet didn't anticipate how resilient, in the end, Greater Halifax Dipperdom would be--well, at least to hold on to 2nd and nominal-oppositiondom (which could just as well reflect the tin-eared Harper/Scheer continuum when it comes to making sense of Halifax). Still, it's the Lib-weakest of the ‘inner 4’ Halifax seats--but at this point, the split opposition saves it.
03/08/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription sûre pour les Libéraux en Atlantique. ہ moins d'un revirement majeur et soudain, victoire libérale aisée.

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