Election Prediction Project

Halifax West
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-07-29 13:42:33

Constituency Profile


Diab, Lena Metlege

Humphries, Eleanor

Roberts, Jonathan Keith

Schulthies, Kevin

Scott, Julie

Zurawski, Richard


Geoff Regan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



227.35 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Geoff Regan ** 2688549.50%
Fred Shuman 1048819.30%
Jacob Wilson 1042919.20%
Richard Zurawski 655512.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Geoff Regan ** 3437768.60%
Michael McGinnis 783715.60%
Joanne Hussey 589411.80%
Richard Henryk Zurawski 19713.90%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Halifax West
   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

03/09/21 JH
Metledge Diab is a deeply problematic and tone deaf candidate - she has direct family ties to the Metledge slum housing racket in Halifax (including acting as their lawyer) - this family does more to exploit low income renters and exacerbate the housing crisis in HRM than most anyone.
That said, Liberals are too much of a lock here to not win - was easily the safest or 2nd safest seat in the Maritimes. I would just expect Diab to win by a much narrower margin than Regan.
27/08/21 Sam
Despite their loss, the NS Liberals had a lot to show for in this part of the province racking up good performances, even if PC candidates weren't always the best fit. The safest Liberal riding should stay that way.
19/08/21 A.S.
‘Best Liberal seat in NS’ was no longer good enough for a majority in '19; but it was good enough for a 30-point plurality vs a 3-way split for 2nd (the only Atlantic seat where only one party finished past 20%). So it's not like Geoff Regan's bequeathing vulnerability or anything.
19/08/21 R.O.
This riding has no incumbent as long time mp Geoff Regan has retired . not sure if that by itself is enough to create a race here . although if you’re the ndp it has to be one of those seats you start to wonder about if you start to have any momentum as it had been ndp in 97 and they posted some good results a few other elections. But still a riding with a long liberal tradition .
03/08/21 Marco Ricci
With long-time Liberal MP Geoff Regan retiring, the Liberals are likely to lose some votes here. But the overall Liberal strength in the riding should be enough to allow provincial Liberal MLA Lena Metlege Diab to win the riding.
27/07/21 Lolitha
Won by a really large margin in 2015 and 2019, it would take a very significant shakeup for the Liberals to lose here this time around. 99% Liberal probability on 338, 100% on Leantossup as of July 27.

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