Election Prediction Project

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-06 12:22:08

Constituency Profile


Fisher, Darren

Lindsay, Michelle

Payne, Kevin

Zaman, Rana


Darren Fisher

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



90.00 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Darren Fisher ** 2425945.30%
Emma Norton 1443527.00%
Jason Cole 863816.10%
Lil MacPherson 52809.90%
Michelle Lindsay 8871.70%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Darren Fisher 3040758.20%
Robert Chisholm ** 1275724.40%
Jason Cole 733114.00%
Brynn Nheiley 17753.40%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
   (97.75% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (2.25% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

09/09/21 Jake H.
This one is TCTC.
I mostly agree with Physaster Master here, with one exception. I don't think Jagmeet Singh is ‘liked’ so much as way, way, way less objectionable than Trudeau in this (and many other) ridings.
This one will be decided by three factors: 1) How many votes the Liberals lose, 2) How many votes the Greens retain, and 3) How many Conservative voters show up at the polls and vote NDP.
The NDP did very well here in the recent provincial elections, but that's never really a factor to reliably predict federal results.
Having their ‘known commodity’ MP running again (Darren Fisher) will help the Liberals' chances.
I do predict a close NDP win here because of the increasing ‘anyone but Trudeau’ sentiment, but again, TCTC.
06/09/21 Physastr Master
Just a reminder that second-choice polling among Conservatives in 2019 consistently favored the NDP over Liberals. I haven't seen 2021 numbers yet, but I see no reason why it would change, and in 2019 the second choice numbers from Leger were 21% NDP, 9% Liberal, a sizeable margin.
This may sound counterintuitive, but Conservatives normally hate Trudeau much more than they actually support right-wing policies, and most people like Jagmeet Singh on a personal level in some way, so voting NDP is less unpalatable than voting Liberal. That said, the Conservative vote was small here to begin with, and by far the most popular secondary choice among conservatives is not voting, so the net effect might be negligible.
My prediction is still TCTC, but the NDP has pulled closer in the polls since then, so I'm becoming increasingly optimistic about removing the Liberals here.
02/09/21 Gone Fishing
About all I know about Dartmouth Cole Harbour is it is in Nova Scotia. SO take my comments with a grain of salt.
The Conservative candidate is gone. I am guessing that so close to nomination deadline there is no replacement possible?
That pulls a pretty major voting block out of the contest. PPC numbers are not polling anywhere so why would they become the choice for conservatives? I think a ton of the more progressive conservatives would be very happy that Max Bermier has provided an outlet for the alt-right protest portion fo the conservative movement. I don’t ever recall reform having a snowball’s chance in hell in the Atlantic because Altantic conservatives are PC conservatives so that vote may have to stay home if it has a chance.
Uniquely the Liberal candidate had half the vote last time around. Unless the trudeau dung splatters onto him I can’t see that evaporating and again I think even this liberal party could attract disgruntled conservatives more so than any others.
So the fight for second is between the NDP and the Greens. You gotta love the dippers chances except if you finish second you are the first loser.
If a team groper collapse occurs maybe I rethink this but as an unattached third party no-nothing this one seems hard to call any way but lib for me.
31/08/21 R.O.
The conservative candidate Troy Meyers was forced to drop out of the race at last minute so there won’t be a cpc candidate here. it wasn’t really a target riding for them and one they haven’t won since the 80’s when old pc party won most of nova scotia . obviously now a race between liberals and ndp but not really sure which one gains more from there not being a cpc candidate here.
31/08/21 JH
The CPC candidate was forced to drop out due to sexual assault allegations hours before the nomination deadline and they were not able to get another candidate, so there will be no CPC candidate on the ballot. I think that all but eliminates any chance of this being an NDP pickup. Even during Alexa's heyday, the NDP never won this seat by more than 36% of the vote, and therefore needed CPC-Liberal vote split to win. Without a CPC candidate and presumably the bulk of that support going Liberal, NDP has no chance now.
31/08/21 Marco Ricci
The Conservatives have removed their candidate, Troy Myers, because of sexual assault allegations:
24/08/21 Ontario Voter
If the NDP are looking to gain a second seat in Nova Scotia after Halifax, I would argue that this one is more likely to go their way than Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook. In the provincial election both NDP MLAs from the Dartmouth region easily won re-election by large margins. While I think that this race will be much closer than it was the last time, I’m not yet able to make a definite prediction.
23/08/21 Physastr Master
There may not be a ton of movement early in the election, but I agree with other posters that Nova Scotia is not looking great for the Liberals after the provincial election, and this is reflected in 338's polling numbers that have the NDP leading in Halifax and competitive in all of Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Sydney-Victoria, and Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook. All of these ridings except Sydney-Victoria are not really at risk of going Conservative, so I don't think there's going to be much strategic inertia that's going to keep disgruntled liberals voting Liberal when an NDP vote seems a good way to vent dissatisfaction. Aside from Halifax, D-CH seems like the next most probable to flip. Most of it went NDP provincially and the polling numbers have it as a toss-up, so I see a flip here as probable. I wouldn't be on the NDP this early, but definitely TCTC. I think Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook is also in this category.
20/08/21 Mr. Dave
Things aren't looking so bright for the Liberals after the recent provincial election. With strong wins in two of the five provincial ridings that make up DARTMOUTH-COLE HARBOUR, I think the NDP has a chance at taking back this riding.
19/08/21 A.S.
The electorate ‘exhaled’ a lot in '19 vs '15; all opposition parties gaining at the expense of the Libs--even the NDP holding their 2nd place advantage despite lacking Robert Chisholm's incumbency and despite conventional wisdom about the NDP being a feeble 4th-party force in the Maritimes that year. And indeed, while the Libs swept all the polls in '15, there was a *lot* of orange on '19's electoral map--which leaves one wondering whether a ‘Jagmeet surprise’ is presently in the offing for Dartmouth. But at the moment, I'll err on the side of caution on that front.
03/08/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription sûre pour les Libéraux en Atlantique. ہ moins d'un revirement majeur et soudain, victoire libérale facile.

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