Election Prediction Project

Central Nova
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-17 09:09:50

Constituency Profile


Cotter, Steven

Fraser, Sean

Frazer, Chris

Henderson, Harvey

MacDonald, Betsy

Muir, Al

Nikas, Katerina

Smyth, Ryan


Sean Fraser

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



9307.83 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Sean Fraser ** 2071846.60%
George Canyon 1320129.70%
Betsy MacDonald 580613.10%
Barry Randle 34787.80%
Al Muir 9382.10%
Chris Frazer 1800.40%
Michael Slowik 1490.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Sean Fraser 2590958.50%
Fred DeLorey 1141825.80%
Ross Landry 453210.20%
David Hachey 18344.10%
Alexander J. MacKenzie 5701.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 570.15%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   Central Nova
   (87.54% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
   (7.18% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   Sackville-Eastern Shore
   (5.28% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

17/09/21 Sam
This one is probably gone for the CPC. On a uniform swing it wouldn't likely be enough anyway, but factoring in the local dynamics - a poor Conservative candidate who was selected at the last minute against an MP who is widely respected. That is if people have been paying attention of course - it's a far cry from the 2008 race here.
05/09/21 Murphy
This riding has historically gone Conservative and would seem to be a potential flip. However, Fraser is popular locally and the Conservative candidate is currently dealing with controversy due to old social media posts. I predict that this stays Liberal but its a closer race than 2019.
03/09/21 bluenoser
I think this one will be very close...but a good possibility for a Conservative pick up here.
28/08/21 Marco Ricci
Yeah, it's August 27 now and the Conservatives still don't have a candidate in place for Central Nova. It's leading to some interesting speculation online as to what is happening. Liberal MP Sean Fraser seems to have done a good job of connecting with the voters in this riding and was probably looking at a comfortable re-election until now. With Liberal numbers not as high in the Maritimes as they were at the start of the campaign, this riding could be closer than in 2019.
26/08/21 Outside Inside
Intuitively, this would be a prime pickup target for the CPC in Nova Scotia. But here we are, four days out from the nomination submission deadline, and the CPC still doesn't have a candidate. This sort of (dis)honour is normally reserved for seats where a party has no hope of winning, sticking some quasi-willing party staffer or local self-promoting opportunist on the ballot at the last minute to save face. The fact that Central Nova finds itself in this category doesn't bode well for CPC chances here, as it means one of two things: (i) the people on the ground have a sense that this riding is unwinnable for the CPC, or (ii) the party has been holding the seat open because they had someone with starpower on their wish list to run here, but have been unable to convince that person to run (having been involved in party candidate recruitment in a past life, many prospective star candidates are divas who will often only run with the assurance that they don't have to face a nomination battle). Of course, if George Canyon was their idea of 'starpower' in 2019, then maybe they're better off with a random party staffer or Donna the Real Estate Agent...
25/08/21 C B
This riding is about as ‘Red Tory’ as it gets. The Conservatives and Erin O’Toole are definitely running a Red Tory campaign. We could argue the merits of that, no doubt. I suspect that if the Liberals slip any more this one could be in play.
23/08/21 R.O.
This had been the strongest area for the nova scotia pc’s in the provincial election largely cause it includes Tim Houson’s home riding in Pictou. Although its week 2 of the election campaign and federal conservatives still don’t have a candidate here according to anything I can find online. And not sure who there candidate might be ? but Betsy Macdonald has returned as the ndp candidate for the riding.
20/08/21 Mr. Dave
Hang on to your hats! The provincial Liberals just got their clocks cleaned, and lost all five of the provincial ridings within Central Nova to the Conservatives in the provincial election. I'd put this one as T.C.T.C. right now.
19/08/21 A.S.
Some were calling this for CPC in '19 due to ‘star candidate’ George Canyon, as well as on grounds of federal history and provincial patterns--instead, Sean Fraser finished w/the 2nd best Lib share in NS. Of course, when it comes to said ‘federal history and provincial patterns’, Peter MacKay winning the Conservative leadership would have made all the difference. *However*, in light of the provincial election, this being home turf for the provincial PC leader could *still* make a difference--then again, former Liberal Premier McNeil's provincial representation didn't prevent West Nova from being the only NS CPC pickup last time...
03/08/21 J.F. Breton
Circonscription sûre pour les Libéraux en Atlantique. ہ moins d'un revirement majeur et soudain, victoire libérale aisée.

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