Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-03 11:18:02

Constituency Profile


Balsom, Barry

Biggar, Wayne

Bradshaw, Lisa

Clark, Alex

Morrissey, Bobby


Bobby Morrissey

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



1483.14 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Bobby Morrissey ** 801639.70%
Logan McLellan 693434.40%
Alex Clark 399819.80%
Sharon Dunn 12306.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Bobby Morrissey 1052149.30%
Gail Shea ** 618529.00%
Herb Dickieson 409719.20%
Nils Ling 5592.60%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

27/08/21 Sam
Of course on a uniform swing it would make sense that Egmont is one of the more vulnerable ridings, but I agree that the Liberals stand a better chance than the pure vote totals suggest, not least by hoovering up some of that Green vote in Summerside. I don't agree in calling this for the Liberals there is proof of some ability for the CPC to retain vote in their stronger areas both in Summerside where their totals mirrored the riding result, even if poll wins come from coming up the middle, and in the Alberton area.
They won't get in on the splits this time, but there's no doubt some of that Gail Shea vote has been retained. And although the varying projections for the CPC in the Atlantics may well be off, if the stronger ones prove correct, this would likely go ahead of the Newfoundland ridings, even factoring in my earlier comment about uniform swing. I'd say this riding leans Liberal for sure, but I think TCTC is appropriate.
19/08/21 A.S.
Re Acadianism: look to West Nova as proof that being the most Acadian riding in the province needn't be a barrier to being the only Conservative riding in the province (indeed, it could work to fortify Conservative determination). And re Gail Shea: besides her provincial political background, what got her in was the oxygen flow created by an open Liberal seat during the Harper era. And as for 2019's result, I don't know what led to *that* unless it was continued Gail Shea-era hardwiring, but it somehow doesn't seem eternal.
16/08/21 Nick M.
PEI is going to be a complete wild card. Like the 905, Votes do swing heavily. And Wayne Easter’s parting words aren’t to the benefit of the incumbent party.
10/08/21 Stevo
Egmont has by far the largest francophone population (about 10%) of the PEI ridings, being adjacent to Acadian NB. One might think that it would render the seat less Conservative-friendly, but Gail Shea's wins in 2008/11 and the closeness in 2019 make it the top Tory target on the island. Still unlikely to flip.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
L'خle-du-Prince-ةdouard est un bastion libéral. Même les Verts, sur une lancée au provincial en 2019, n'ont pu influer sérieusement sur le résultat au fédéral. Avec l'avance du PLC dans les sondages à l'heure actuelle, victoire des Libéraux.

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