Hardy, Kevin
	MacAulay, Lawrence
	MacLean, Michael
	MacLeod, Fred
	Phelan, Wayne
	Thiele, Lynne
Incumbent:
	Lawrence MacAulay

References:

Population (2016): Population (2011): Private dwellings: Dwellings occupied by usual residents: Land area Population Density			36615 36005 18829 14748 2551.09 km² 14.40/km²
2019 Results - 2019 Prediction
	Lawrence MacAulay **	10939	49.30%
	Wayne Phelan	6439	29.00%
	Glen Beaton	3068	13.80%
	Lynne Thiele	1481	6.70%
	Christene Squires	240	1.10%
2015 Results - 2015 Prediction    Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)
	Lawrence MacAulay **	14621	65.00%
	Julius Patkai	3632	16.20%
	Billy Cann	2503	11.10%
	Teresa Doyle	1434	6.40%
	Christene Squires	295	1.30%
2011 Results (redistributed)
		8107	38.37%
		2164	10.24%
		10486	49.63%
		373	1.77%
Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)
Cardigan    (100% of voters in current riding)    2011/2008/2004 Predictions    Reference - Pundits’ Guide

	19/08/21	A.S. 99.225.52.35
Of course, back in the day Cardigan was the top *Progressive* Conservative target. And provincially, it's still got that PC infrastructure in place. Maybe had MacAulay *retired* at any opportune moment along the way, Cardigan could have fallen in an open-seat situation--but he's still there, a third of a century later. And maybe had Peter MacKay been chosen as Conservative leader, there could have been opportunity--but he wasn't.
	10/08/21	Stevo 164.177.56.217
For many years in the 90s and 2000s, Cardigan was the top Conservative target in PEI, partly due to the near absence of traditional francophone Liberalism compared to the western part of PEI. It's since slumped to 4/4 in likelihood of flipping. Makes little sense for the CPC to invest resources in PEI when just across the water in Cape Breton they nearly pulled off two out-of-nowhere upsets.
	30/05/21	J.F. Breton 38.23.227.9
L'خle-du-Prince-ةdouard est un bastion libéral. Même les Verts, sur une lancée au provincial en 2019, n'ont pu influer sérieusement sur le résultat au fédéral. Avec l'avance du PLC dans les sondages à l'heure actuelle, victoire des Libéraux.