Election Prediction Project

2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-03 11:17:50

Constituency Profile


Hardy, Kevin

MacAulay, Lawrence

MacLean, Michael

MacLeod, Fred

Phelan, Wayne

Thiele, Lynne


Lawrence MacAulay

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



2551.09 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Lawrence MacAulay ** 1093949.30%
Wayne Phelan 643929.00%
Glen Beaton 306813.80%
Lynne Thiele 14816.70%
Christene Squires 2401.10%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Lawrence MacAulay ** 1462165.00%
Julius Patkai 363216.20%
Billy Cann 250311.10%
Teresa Doyle 14346.40%
Christene Squires 2951.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   (100% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

19/08/21 A.S.
Of course, back in the day Cardigan was the top *Progressive* Conservative target. And provincially, it's still got that PC infrastructure in place. Maybe had MacAulay *retired* at any opportune moment along the way, Cardigan could have fallen in an open-seat situation--but he's still there, a third of a century later. And maybe had Peter MacKay been chosen as Conservative leader, there could have been opportunity--but he wasn't.
10/08/21 Stevo
For many years in the 90s and 2000s, Cardigan was the top Conservative target in PEI, partly due to the near absence of traditional francophone Liberalism compared to the western part of PEI. It's since slumped to 4/4 in likelihood of flipping. Makes little sense for the CPC to invest resources in PEI when just across the water in Cape Breton they nearly pulled off two out-of-nowhere upsets.
30/05/21 J.F. Breton
L'خle-du-Prince-ةdouard est un bastion libéral. Même les Verts, sur une lancée au provincial en 2019, n'ont pu influer sérieusement sur le résultat au fédéral. Avec l'avance du PLC dans les sondages à l'heure actuelle, victoire des Libéraux.

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