Election Prediction Project

St. John's South-Mount Pearl
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-06-14 14:18:03

Constituency Profile


Critch, Ray

Hodder, Steve

O'Regan, Seamus

Stewart, Georgia Faith


Seamus O'Regan

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



422.87 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Seamus O'Regan ** 2079351.10%
Anne Marie Anonsen 1089026.80%
Terry Martin 776719.10%
Alexandra Hayward 7401.80%
Benjamin Ruckpaul 3350.80%
David Jones 1410.30%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Seamus O'Regan 2592257.90%
Ryan Cleary ** 1646736.80%
Marek Krol 20474.60%
Jackson McLean 3650.80%

2011 Results (redistributed)

Other 90.02%

Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (97% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   (3% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

06/09/21 Physastr Master
I have been duped before, but the NDP surge in Atlantic Canada is really quite striking, it's a near-vertical trendline mainly at the expense of the Liberals. 338 now has this seat with less than a 5-point gap. The polling could be wrong, but for now we need to work with the data we have, and that's hinting to this being close, in addition to the promising signs (pun intended) on the ground noted by previous posters. I say TCTC
Also note this argument applies to SJ East, which I think is probably pretty similar to SJSMP without Jack Harris, but the polls are favorable enough that the NDP could get both St John's seats on their polling alone.
03/09/21 LD
Curiously, I’ve seen a lot more NDP signs in this district than Liberal, though we all know lawn signs don’t really mean much of anything. This should be a safe Liberal seat, even in the face of all of his controversies, Seamus O’Regan still did very well in the 2019 election. NDP will certainly finish in 2nd here, but I don’t think it’ll be close. The orange wave and a severely unpopular Liberal party put the NDP over the top in this district in 2011, and it hasn’t been competitive for them since.
19/08/21 A.S.
Incredibly enough, this turned in N&L's only Lib majority in '19--a measure of how its status as a generic ‘urban party’ could override regional issues and phenomena. And it takes a certain cheek to offer a dynamic-local-candidate NDP prediction *here* while everyone's falling all over themselves confidently asserting that St. John's East will go back to the Libs post-Jack Harris--though the inherent why-here-and-not-there does underpin why *I* can't join in those confident assertions...
13/08/21 AGP
While it is an uphill battle, the NDP have held this riding before and they have a dynamic and local candidate who grew up and lives in the riding, with strong community roots. I’m anxiously watching this one.
13/06/21 J.F. Breton
L'Atlantique demeure un terreau fertile pour les Libéraux. St.John's, dans l'Est de l'île, est assurée de demeurer libérale. Avec le retrait de Harris à St.Jonh, encore moins de phénomène d'attraction du vote vers le NPD dans les circonscriptions limitrophes. Bastion libéral qui n'est pas près de tomber.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Popular MP/Cabinet Minister+Stable Liberal numbers=Easy Liberal hold.

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