Election Prediction Project

St. John's East
2021 Federal Election ~ Élections fédérales

Prediction Changed
2021-09-09 08:30:29

Constituency Profile


Etchegary, Glenn

Metcalfe, Dana

Shortall, Mary

Thompson, Joanne


Jack Harris

Population (2016):
Population (2011):

Private dwellings:
Dwellings occupied by usual residents:

Land area
Population Density



328.15 km²

2019 Results - 2019 Prediction

Jack Harris 2114846.90%
Nick Whalen ** 1496233.20%
Joedy Wall 814118.10%
David Peters 8211.80%

2015 Results - 2015 Prediction
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep. Order)

Nick Whalen 2097446.70%
Jack Harris ** 2032845.30%
Deanne Stapleton 29386.50%
David Anthony Peters 5001.10%
Sean Burton 1400.30%

2011 Results (redistributed)


Component Riding(s) (2003 Representation Order)

   St. John's East
   (95.89% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

   St. John's South-Mount Pearl
   (4.11% of voters in current riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide

11/09/21 Physastr Master
Please stop making decisions based on Mainstreet riding polls. This is the same pollster had Surrey-Fleetwood going Liberal by 10 points the week of the BC election where the NDP won by 20 points, and that prolific poll in Edmonton-Strathcona last Canadian election that had the NDP in third place, when they handily won and beat the third place party by *37* points, for a hilarious 41 point error. The have consistently and systematically under-polled NDP supporters. Their inclusion in predictions has only ever confused pundits.
As for this riding, NDP numbers in greater St. Johns appear strong enough they could conceivably win even without Jack Harris, and I suspect there will be at least some residual support, which would make be think they have a slight edge. That said, polling seems... unstable to say the least right now, so I am not remotely confident in that conclusion. In cases with a vacating popular incumbent I normally defer to local voices, and since I haven't heard much about the ground game from posters here I will refrain from making a call
10/09/21 Jake H.
I think this riding is still too close to call. The NDP had comfortable wins with Harris, but without his name on the ballot, how many of their voters will defect to the Liberals or elsewhere? How many disaffected votes will the Liberals lose after another term marred with scandals and COVID? Where will left leaning ‘strategic voters’ end up? Will the Greens be able to pick up enough Liberal and/or NDP votes to make some kind of difference here?
The Conservatives are out of luck in this one, barring some kind of massive vote split in which they are able to run up the middle and eke out a win. For now, I think it's still an NDP/Liberal tossup.
I do think the frequent practice of NDP voters running to the Liberal banner on election day may be less of a factor in this riding, given that when they already hold the seat they know their NDP vote DOES matter here, and given the rising anti-Trudeau sentiment everywhere... so the question of ‘Harris voters’ vs ‘NDP voters’ will be a big one in this constituency.
09/09/21 Bernard
Just pointing out that the poll has the Greens getting 1.6% even though there is no Green candidate in this riding, or anywhere in the province. I raise this to simply point out there is some methodological issues with the poll when they get support for a party that is not running in the province.
08/09/21 Murphy
New Mainstreet poll has the Liberals at 50%, NDP at 30% and Conservatives at 16%.
08/09/21 JH
New Mainstreet riding poll - LPC 50%, NDP 30%, CPC 16%
Very clear that this was a Jack Harris riding, not a natural NDP riding, and the polling shows a big Liberal win. NDP is likely to get shut out in Atlantic Canada except maybe the Halifax riding at this point - I don't see anywhere else they can win.
03/09/21 LD
This is the district which I currently live in. I think that the NDP are going to at least make this an interesting battle, and I can see a decent amount of the Jack Harris voters sticking around. However, margins for the NDP in both 2015 and 2019 weren’t big enough to withstand an exodus of voters defecting to the Liberals in this election. I could be wrong of course, but Shortall doesn’t appear to have the same appeal as Harris, nor the same appeal as Joanne Thompson for that matter.
31/08/21 GritBusters
While the NDP is polling somewhat better nationally than they did in 2019, I'm not convinced that this riding is anything more than a Jack Harris riding.
Without Jack, the Liberals should (unfortunately) take this one back.
25/08/21 The Jackal
If this was a week ago I would say an easy Liberal pick-up. However, with the recent bump of NDP support in Atlantic Canada they have a very good shot at retaining this riding.
25/08/21 odude22
This is an interesting riding, and could easily be a three way race. In the last 20 years this riding has been held by the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP. The riding is diverse in ideology. The Liberal, Conservative, and NDP candidates are all legitimate and qualified, and yet, no star among them. Some are quick to say that this is an easy win for the Liberals, but I wouldn't say that yet. The Liberal Leader made another visit here on the 23rd to make announcements. He needs 15 for a majority, this is certainly one of his targets, but it is not a done deal yet. Too close to call.
19/08/21 A.S.
You know, I still wouldn't call this an absolute lost cause for the NDP; or at least they're still going to invest in *something* post-Jack Harris, particularly as they're not nearly as Atlantic Canada sickly at large now as they were in '19 (that is, neither 3rd place nor sinking below 20% is a given--though the provincial setback for the Alison Coffin party doesn't help matters). Though one little noted thing about the '19 race is that the Libs took it from *both* ends--that is, the riding's Pouch Cove extremity actually went Con thanks to Mayor (and subsequent MLA) Joedy Wall being the candidate.
16/08/21 jeff316
Your province is bankrupt and you just received $5 billion from the governing Liberals? You don't vote for a labour lawyer. Liberals with ease.
14/08/21 Sam
As upsetting as many will find it, Jack Harris' retirement will bring an end to the NDP's ownership of this riding, now with a candidate with far lesser recognition. I'm glad Jack got to retire of his own accord, he deserved that at least.
I suspect now this riding's voting patterns mirror it's neighbour far more now - they are hardly demographically distinct enough. The NDP will no doubt invest in this one, but they now risk being shut out of Atlantic Canada.
31/07/21 Fix Error
The Liberal candidate here is Joanne Thompson, not Seamus O'Regan, who is running in Mount Pearl.
30/07/21 Stevo
It is entirely in this government's character to ‘invest’ (i.e. throw away) billions on a doomed projet in order to secure ONE seat. Likely a politically successful strategy.
28/07/21 ME
The deal on Muskrat Falls may put the Liberals in the drivers seat
28/07/21 Dr Bear
Let’s be honest; this riding is a Jack Harris riding, not an NDP riding. And post Jack Layton, even when Harris won, it wasn’t by a tremendous margin. Now with Harris retiring, the Liberals should be able to nab this seat back. I would actually argue that the CPC are more likely to win than a non-Harris NDP candidate.
22/07/21 Thomas K
Perhaps Alison Coffin could run for the NDP? Until then, this is too close to call.
23/06/21 Marco Ricci
Now that Jack Harris has announced he is not running in the next election, this riding probably becomes Too Close To Call. NDP may have an opportunity to keep it if they can find a strong candidate, but the Liberals may now be able to pick it up if they get strong numbers in Newfoundland again.
22/06/21 VanIsler
Jack Harris is retiring. With low NDP numbers in Atlantic Canada, I doubt a new NDP candidate will be able to hold this seat.
17/06/21 ME
Jack Harris is dealing with his age(72) and cancer. He will not stand again and the provincial riding went to the Liberals in the recent election.
12/06/21 J.F. Breton
Harris ne se représente pas, apparemment. Grosse perte pour le NPD. Du coup, la circonscription reviendra assurément libérale.
11/06/21 Chris N
According to the CBC, incumbent Jack Harris has stated that he won't run in the next election.
11/06/21 VanIsler
Probably an NDP hold (although this could change...) It will likely remain the only NDP seat in Atlantic Canada.
I think Jack Harris should keep this for the NDP by a healthy margin.
06/08/21 Laurence Putnam
I didn't think Jack Harris had one final victory left in him last time, and he pulled it off. He retires on a high note. But as other commenters have pointed out, it was always his personal appeal in the riding that garnered votes; nothing else. I wouldn't think the NDP will crack 20% without him.
It's one of the many Atlantic Canada Liberal-by-default ridings.

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